Perhaps at this moment you are saying to yourself, "What the hell has all this got to do with the Academy Awards?"
Prediction - 2014 Oscars
I’ve actually caught six of the Best Picture nominees this
year, which is better than my usual tally come Oscar time. Last year my picks
were hopelessly inept, so let’s see if I can be even more off-the-mark about
Sunday’s winners.
Best Picture
Winner: Gravity
I’d like to Win: The Wolf of Wall Street
So I haven’t seen
Philomena (if I’d known it would be the token Brit flick nominee I might
have bothered to give it a look when I had the chance), Dallas Buyers Club (it may be in the offing in a couple of weeks)
and Her. I’m fairly confident none of
these will take gold next Sunday. Nebraska
is also comfortably out of the running, and I suspect that The Wolf of Wall Street is a little too extreme to win out. In my
review, I said I didn’t think it deserved Best Picture and I stand by that
comment. But there’s a difference between that stance and it being the best out
of its fellow contenders. There are a number of very good films in this year’s
line up but out of those I’ve seen there are no great ones.
It’s been suggested that a late-game resurgence for Captain Phillips is possible, but I
can’t see it really gaining much momentum. Which brings it down to Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and American
Hustle. If it wasn’t for the make-believe-but-real ’70s glory bestowed on Argo last year, I’d suggest Hustle was the safe bet. And it might still
win as the most popular, Tinseltown dress-up box movie with a touch of The Sting (remember how that won but
didn’t deserve to?) 12 Years a Slave could
capture the serious, issue-led Hollywood vote (which can be revolve around anything
from an affliction to a prejudice to a topical theme). We’ve seen that in the
past decade with Crash, The Hurt Locker and (to an extent) The King’s Speech. It might be time for
another, but I have the sense 12 Years a
Slave invokes respect rather than adoration and I wonder if that’s enough.
I’m as doubtful about Gravity
winning, as it’s sci-fi (well, just about) and the lesser of the trio in
storytelling terms. But Gravity’s the
choice that wouldn’t feel as predictable as Hustle
or 12 Years, a bit like The Return of the King winning a decade
ago. So like Lincoln last year,
prepare for Gravity not to win.
Best Director
Winner: Alfonso Cuarón
I’d like to Win: Martin Scorsese
I don’t even know how Alexander Payne got on this list, as
he’s done better work on better films and not a whole lot really stands out
about Nebraska other than that it’s
in black and white (so, Best Cinematography?) More deserving of recognition
would have been Paul Greengrass’ work on Captain
Phillips; not a great film, but a great piece of filmmaking. There’s
nothing very special about David O Russell’s affected vision for American Hustle, so I’d be surprised if
he was recognised. McQueen is a great director, but he’s possibly at his best
not trapped in material quite so linear. I think he’s the runner-up here,
however. The winner looks set to be Cuarón, not just for his technical
virtuosity but for being a consistently intelligent mainstream director
(although this may be his least smart movie). He bags it even if Gravity doesn’t take picture. But my
pick is definitely Scorsese. To an extent he (like Greengrass) exceeds his
subject matter, but isn’t that usually the case these days?
Best Actor
Winner: Matthew McConaughey
I’d like to Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
This may be a two-horse race between Ejiofor and Matthew
McConaughey. The smart money is on Matt, in the full flush of a career
resurgence and flaunting one of Oscar’s great loves; extreme physical
transformation as a badge of acting prowess (not that it’s not, but they do love
the obvious). Bale has already won with a Russell movie, and his turn in this
one is a little too broad and theatrical for serious consideration. Dern has
too much competition for the lifetime achievement award, but it’s great to see
him in the running. DiCaprio gets my vote; he’s brilliant, hilarious and makes
it all look so easy. But I’m not sure a film with all that unwholesome
behaviour is the one to bag him an Oscar. I’m certain 12 Years will be recognised in some capacity, but where I thought
Chiwetel was a shoe-in at one point, now I’m less certain. So Ejiofor or
McConaughey. I’m torn.
Best Actress
Winner: Cate Blanchett
I’d like to Win: Amy Adams
Judi Dench and Meryl Streep are de factos in any lead or
supporting category, and I think it’s safe to say that both will have to be
content with a predictable nomination and no more this year. Sandy Buttocks
supports Gravity sensationally well,
but she isn’t always served by the scrappy dialogue. She also has a Best
Actress win only four years ago. I think it’s between Cate Blanchett and Amy
Adams. A few weeks ago it was between Cate Blanchett and Cate Blanchett. The
question will be whether the adverse publicity Woody Allen’s received of late
will affect the voting. I think it might, but probably not sufficiently to stem
the tidal wave of feeling in her favour. I’ve yet to see Blue Jasmine, and I’m sure she deserves the recognition, so I’m picking
Adams (Cate’s won an Oscar already, and she’s sure to be nominated many times
more). This is her fifth nom, and first in a leading capacity; if by some
chance she takes the podium I think you’ll be able to put it down to anti-Woody
sentiment.
Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Jared Leto
I’d like to Win: Michael
Fassbender
This is an interesting category. It’s one often weighed down
by predictable favourites and old hands hitherto unrewarded. This year the only
safe choice is Cooper’s FBI guy in American
Hustle, and I think he’ll take a distant fifth. Jonah Hill gives great
false teeth in The Wolf of Wall Street,
but I think his showy role there isn’t quite as interesting as in his previous
nomination for Moneyball. Michael
Fassbender getting a win would be about as unlikely as Joseph Fiennes for Schindler’s List, but he gets my vote
for a surprisingly textured display of villainy. So I’ve narrowed it down to
Barkhad Abdi and Jared Leto. Leto’s had the lion’s share of the awards this
year, and I’m not sure Oscar will upset that. Abdi has a BAFTA to his name, but
who pays any attention to the BAFTAs (no matter how much they ask to be
listened to)? Compelling as Abdi is, I’m also left wondering if he’s a one-hit
wonder and I suspect that factor may work against him.
Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Lupita Nyongo’o
I’d like to Win: Lupita Nyong’o
It would be a bit greedy of Jennifer Lawrence to gobble up a
Best Supporting Actress Oscar only a year after getting the main title. I
wouldn’t put it out of reach, as she’s wonderful in American Hustle and she’s probably loved just as much as Tom Hanks
was when he took his back-to-back wins. June Squibb is equally attention
grabbing in Nebraska, but I think she
and Julia Roberts are outsiders. Sally Hawkins? Maybe, but Blanchett will be
getting all the Blue Jasmine attention.
So I’m going for Lupita. Not only does she really deserve it, but the
supporting categories are often the chance to validate a rising star.
Best Original Screenplay
Winner: American Hustle
I’d like to Win: Pass
I’ll forgo a personal choice here, as I’ve only seen two of
the nominated films, and I don’t think either are that deserving. I do think Hustle will take it, though, as it will
be something of a consolation prize for the absence of greater glory. Woody
winning again? Nah, especially not right now. Nebraska is too similar to previous Payne pictures. Her or Dallas Buyers Club might surprise, but the former may be too quirky
and the latter is really tipped for its performances more than its writing
(rightly or wrongly).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: 12 Years a Slave
I’d like to Win: The Wolf of Wall Street
I nearly passed on this one too, even though Philomena’s the only one I haven’t seen.
Before Midnight has moments of
brilliance, but occasionally its student philosophising sits uncomfortably with
the older more jaded areas it’s exploring. Captain
Phillips’ least virtuous aspect is a script that hits you too hard with a “tale
of true-life heroism”. The Wolf of Wall
Street is fitfully outstanding, but it’s utterly undisciplined. 12 Years a Slave fails to effectively
translate that this all happened over 12 years, which is kind of fundamental.
So none of them are great screenplays. I’m picking Wolf because if you cut out the fat you might have something closer
to greatness.
Best Cinematography
Winner: Gravity
I’d like to Win: Inside
Llewyn Davis
I don’t see Prisoners taking
home even a technical award. The
Grandmaster is an outside possibility. Nebraska’s
look really didn’t impress me all that much. If Gravity takes it there will be lots of comments about virtual cinematography
(does it count?) but it does appear to have momentum. My pick is Bruno
Delbonnel’s work on Inside Llewyn Davis.
Best Costume Design
Winner; The Great Gatsby
I’d like to Win: The Great Gatsby
Baz Lurhmann’s movie has been singularly shut out of any
significant recognition, probably rightly so (but I did like The Great Gatsby).
An award that usually seems to come down to who can remake the best period
costumes, as evidenced by all this year’s nominations. Or fit out Tim Burton
movies. Hustle looks like its duds
came off the peg at the local fancy dress shop, two of the others are duking it
out for 19th century authenticity and one is 1930s. But Gatsby is most colourful and we like
bright shiny things.
Best Sound Mixing
Winner: Gravity
I’d like to Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
This is where toss-ups start to take over. I’m saying no to Lone Survivor and The Hobbit on the grounds of common sense. I think the other three
all have a strong chance. Gravity
seems like a safe bet, or maybe Captain
Phillips.
Best Film Editing
Winner: Captain Phillips
I’d like to Win: Gravity
I suspect this one too is between Gravity and Captain Phillips,
but I’m going to side with Greengrass’ fast and furious approach courtesy of Christopher
Rouse. The one I’d really pick is absent, though (The Wolf of Wall Street).
Best Sound Editing
Winner: Captain Phillips
I’d like to Win: Pass
It probably seems likely that if one wins one sound
category, it will win the other too but it doesn’t happens as often as it does.
So to speak. I have no idea really, nor particular investment. It has its
faults, but the technical accomplishments of Captain Phillips aren’t among them.
Best Visual Effects
Winner: Gravity
I’d like to Win: Gravity
There’s no question that this one’s in the bag. I actually
think that the others, barring Hobbit,
may all be consistently more top
notch, and I’d perversely love to see The
Lone Ranger win an Oscar, but Gravity’s
effects more obviously service story, tone and atmosphere.
Best Make-up
Winner: Dallas Buyers Club
I’d like to Win: The Lone Ranger
Jackass winning an
Oscar? I guess it’s possible, and make-up can easily become a best latex award.
Dallas Buyers Club should get it, but
I’m rooting for The Lone Ranger
(again).
Best Production Design
Winner: The Great Gatsby
I’d like to Win: The Great Gatsby
Hmmm. I think Gatsby
or Gravity. Those, and Her, took awards from the Art Directors
Guild, but I don’t know where Her will
get a look in. Another where I don’t have a strong opinion. I don’t want to see
Gravity sweep the floor, though, and it’s not the production
designer’s fault that Lurhmann shoots like he’s eaten too may sweets.
Best Original Song
Winner: Despicable Me 2 (Pharrell Williams: Happy)
I’d like to Win: Despicable Me 2
Yeah, maybe Frozen
will win. But it’s typical Disney formula song writing. Happy gets into the brain. The song from Her is kind of irritating, and U2’s one is their own formula beaten
to death. Please Mr Kennedy should
have been nominated, though.
Best Original Score
Winner: Gravity (Steven Price)
I’d like to Win: Gravity
Never bet against John Williams, but I’ll falling with Gravity.
Best Animated Short
Winner: Get a Horse!
I’d like to Win: Feral
Room on the Broom
might be aping the style and success of The
Gruffalo a bit too much to find
favour (it’s also been on TV in Britain). Get
a Horse! is really obvious conceptually (but nostalgia, recognition and
stylistic flourish might win out). Feral looks most interesting and least
calculated.
Best Documentary Short
Winner: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
I’d like to Win: Pass
Holocaust pics are always good for an Oscar win, right? And The
Lady in Number 6 is an uplifting Holocaust short. What could be more laudable?
Cavedigger looks interesting, but
it’s not got a big issue behind it. Facing
Fear, Karama Has No Walls and Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private
jack Hall can all make a claim to tackling some weighty subject matter.
Best Live Action Short
Winner: The Voorman Problem
I’d like to Win: The Voorman Problem
It’s a likely crowd-pleaser, with recognisable faces (Martin
Freeman, Tom Hollander) and a bit of light relief (as opposed to That Wasn’t Me). Maybe this year’s Franz Kafka’s It’s A Wonderful Life.
Best Documentary Feature
Winner: The Act of Killing
I’d like to Win: Pass
The Act of Killing
has the highest profile, although Dirty
Wars might have some support (it’s the one I’m most interested in seeing).
The others are a doc about backing singers, one about the Egyptian revolution
and a critically acclaimed feature about a boxing painter. The Act of Killing is one that has really broken out this year to
become a talking point, so it really ought
to win, tackling its subject matter in a unique and sometimes astonishing way
(but see the cinema release rather than the director’s cut, I’d suggest).
Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: The Great Beauty
I’d like to Win: Pass
I’ve only seen The
Hunt out of these, but I’m guessing it’s between The Great Beauty and The
Broken Circle Breakdown. The Missing
Picture and Omar come with Cannes
laurels, but I think Beauty probably passes
for the Academy’s idea of what great European cinema should be.
Best Animated Feature
Winner: Frozen
I’d like to Win: Pass
I don’t think The
Croods or Despicable Me 2 stand any
chance, Miyazaki’s always possible, but it’s Frozen’s win.