Prediction - 2015 Oscars
My predictions last year had a not-too-bad hit rate (I
picked two thirds correctly), so I’m probably due to be hopeless out of sync
this time. I’m also casting my rickety runes a month in advance, and the
landscape can change a lot between now and February 22. Who knows what dirty
tricks will be unleashed or sudden upsets will allow a previously unsuspected
player to become the frontrunner?
Best Picture
Winner: Boyhood
I’d like to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Only eight Best Picture contenders this year, the lowest
since the category was opened up to a maximum of 10 for the 2009 selection.
Several of these are de rigueur prestige pictures, of the sort anyone involved
who claimed Oscar glory hadn’t even entered their minds would be telling big
fat porkies (The Theory of Everything,
The Imitation Game, Selma), although one of those (Selma) has profoundly failed to attract
attention in other categories (a song nod). That may be because cynical Academy
members think they already did their bit for the legacy of the struggle for
equal rights last year; that was enough to feel good and liberal for another
five years or so. Or it may be because Selma
just isn’t that great.
Quality has never been an impediment to Oscar glory of
course, and past form would suggest those with a particular chance are the
“genius triumphs against adversity” entries; two of the above, Theory and Imitation (although the latter stops short of being a triumphant,
it presents Turing as one always destined to have his genius eventually
recognised). Neither of these are great films. Biopics very rarely are. Theory is superior to Imitation, but they both fail to sufficiently
understand and get inside the subjects that made their protagonists such
achievers. Unbroken’s absence is a
relief, although probably not for Angelina Jolie. It seems the Academy weren’t
persuaded by, even though it’s the stuff Oscar speeches are made of. The truth
is both Theory and Imitation are more actor Oscar films
that Best Picture Oscar; main award recognition is more of a side effect.
There are more offbeat offerings; Birdman may have a very movie-movie appeal to voters, but I wonder
if there may be a minor backlash against it. It’s clever but is it really all
that loved (so, like The Player)?
That said, it has the most nominations with Grand
Budapest Hotel (nine each); sometimes that means something, on others a big
hope walks away empty-handed. I’d love Grand
Budapest to win, and, if there’s an upset, I could see it as the upsetter,
but comedy-tinged fare has had a greater than usual hit rate in recent years (The Artist, Argo) and I’m not sure it’s really in the air. Whiplash, acclaimed from all quarters, is the little picture than
can be proud just to make it into the final line-up. It isn’t a serious
challenger, though.
American Sniper?
Well, critically it’s been contentious. As many have torn apart Eastwood’s
handling of the film as have offered it praise and respect (the lack of a
director nod is very noticeable). It’s also turned into the biggest hit of all
the nominees, and could well be the director’s biggest success ever (as a
director). But The Hurt Locker has
already taken the Middle East conflict crown in 2008, and I think Sniper would have to be universally
acclaimed to be in with a shot (so to speak). It is possible, though, that it
succumbs to the Titanic effect; a
rapturous public response provokes a sheep-like voting frenzy from Academy
members. That, and a disinclination to be labelled unpatriotic.
Which leaves Boyhood,
and right now it would be foolish to bet against it. It took Best Film at the
Critics’ Choice Awards (generally an accurate indication of mood) and its been
feted as a prime contender since the summer. No one seems to have a bad thing
to say about it, which always helps. The
Grand Budapest Hotel is my choice; I suspect only Birdman and Boyhood would
have a chance of shaking that view (I’ve only seen three of the nominees so
far), but they’d have to be pretty extraordinary to topple my favourite film of
2014.
Best Director
Winner: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
I’d like to win: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Linklater is a bit of an unobtrusive auteur; you’d be
unlikely to know one of his films instantly. The exact opposite to Anderson,
with his careful tableaux and precise framing. I found Grand Budapest a delight visually, but Linklater’s achievement in
12-year movie making is just the kind of thing Oscars like to fawn over. I
suspect, however, that a win for Linklater will have very little impact on his
career and future choices. He just doesn’t seem that kind of guy.
As for the others, well it’s baffling Morten Tyldum was
nominated (less deserving of attention than Theory’s
James Marsh, who rightly wasn’t recognised). The lack of a nom for Selma’s Ava DuVernay (black and female,
barred from the white boys’ club) has already attracted much comment. Bennett
Miller would only stand a chance if his film had been a contender for the top
prize; he’s the kind of director who wouldn’t be singled out stylistically, and
he isn’t a virtuoso. On the other hand, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s work on Birdman is of the sort one could imagine
taking Best Director when Best Picture went to someone else. I don’t think
Anderson gets it unless Budapest
upsets the Best Picture race, and even then I think Linklater would get rewarded,
with Iñárritu
in with a distant second place chance.
Best Actor
Winner: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
I’d like to win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Keaton’s been a bit of a toast of the awards circuit, and
this is really a two-horse race between him and Eddie Redmayne’s portrayal of
Stephen Hawking. Counting against Redmayne is acute awareness of the disability
cliché of winning awards (as satirised in Tropic
Thunder), and that Daniel Day Lewis took the podium for a wheelchair role
25 years earlier. Both Redmayne and Keaton grabbed Golden Globes (in Drama and
Comedy respectively), so I’m torn over who will get it.
I don’t think this is Bradley Cooper’s year; he’s probably
more likely to win in a supporting role at some point (I’m dubious that he’s
the sort of guy voters really want to
see win). Steve Carrell’s mighty prosthetic nose covering his already mighty genuine
nose is unlikely to swing it, while Benedict Cumberbatch may be an awards
staple from now on but he won’t win for Turing, not even with all the obvious
tics and quirks he employed for the part (The
Imitation Game has 8 noms, and I could even see it coming away empty
handed, despite the legendary influence of Harvey Weinstein on the Oscars). No
Timothy Spall (Turner), David Oyelowo
(Selma; I wonder if his pronounced
faith counted against his chances) or Ralph Fiennes (too broad and too much fun
to be considered worthy) or Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), although the latter isn’t so much surprising as that
Dan Gilroy’s screenplay was noticed
(as in, it’s too-caustic for the Academy).
Best Actress
Winner: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
I’d like to win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
No recognition for Jennifer Anniston (Cake), Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
or Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year, which was roundly
ignored). Julianne Moore will probably get the affliction award this year
(which makes Redmayne more unlikely; dual sufferers with gongs would make
Oscars look even more predictable than they’re already seen to be), and I’m all
for giving her an Oscar irrespective of the film. She’s long overdue. She has a
Golden Globe already, making it more bettable.
If Theory of
Everything were to do a sweep, Felicity Jones’ outstanding performance
might be recognised, but I suspect the view will be that she’s young and has
lots of time to win later. Rosamund Pike’s Gone
Girl nomination is fun to see, but I don’t think there’s any real
likelihood of a result there. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) and Reese Witherspoon (Wild) have both won Oscars already, although the former can
probably expect to bag a few more in years to come, as she is always riveting
to watch.
Best Supporting Actor
Winner: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
I’d like to win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Simmons has an R L Ermey-type powerhouse role to get his teeth
into, and it pretty much overwhelms the other contenders. It’s nice that Robert
Duvall is still hanging in there, but he’s got a Best Actor Oscar and, good as
he always is, I’m not convinced he’s getting another here (if he’d been snubbed
before, he’d be a shoe-in, however).
It’s nice to see Edward Norton, once widely regarded as the
best up-and-coming thesp of his generation, back in the frame (his first Oscar
nomination since the ‘90s). Ethan Hawke gets his second Best Supporting Actor
nomination (the first was Training Day);
I’ve never been his biggest fan, admittedly, but I think Patricia Arquette is
the performer from Boyhood more
likely to be garlanded. Mark Ruffalo and Edward Norton are the only potential
challengers here (and the latter isn’t best loved in the industry, so the
rumour goes), but it would go down as an upset if Simmons didn’t get it. I’d be
equally happy for Ruffalo, Simmons or Norton to be cut off mid-acceptance
speech.
Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
I’d like to win: Emma Stone (Birdman)
Obviously Meryl Streep’s been nominated, obviously. This
time doing a fun turn as a witch. Next year she’ll be nominated for playing a
bag lady. At this stage she’s probably going win another couple of times in her
career, but it won’t be for Into the
Woods. Keira Knightley was fine in The
Imitation Game, but not an awards contender. Laura Dern? Very much an
outside possibility, and I’m dubious Wild
will win owt at all. Emma Stone is possible as the fresh-faced youngster, and
she’s a talent to behold; it’s an award that has quite frequently seen a young
star recognised in the past, and Birdman
is big for luvvie appreciation. But Arquette will take the prize.
Best Original Screenplay
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I’d like to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I guess Boyhood might win for Linklater. If the above
categories are pretty much shoe-ins, this is where the possibilities open out a
bit. I suspect The Grand Budapest Hotel will take this over Birdman (which won the Critics’ Choice Best Original Screenplay,
and a Golden Globe), simply because Birdman
is likely to get an acting award and Budapest
would be in danger of getting nothing major otherwise. I’d like to see Nightcrawler surprise everyone simply
because Dan Gilroy delivered a giddy, daring script. But that would show the
Academy’s ability to go for chancy material, which isn’t likely. I think Foxcatcher, as respected as it is, will
probably be crowded out.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: The Imitation Game
I’d like to win: Inherent Vice
This is another category where an otherwise unrecognised
film could get a consolation prize. Inherent Vice and The Theory of Everything seem like outside prospects, while Whiplash’s mis-categorisation as adapted
will probably count against it. That leaves American
Sniper and The Imitation Game. My
feeling is Sniper will make do in the
technical categories, and – undeserving as it is – The Imitation Game could find solitary success here. It’s always possible that Sniper could ride a wave of popular
support over the next few weeks and upset the apple cart, but that’s a big if.
Best Animated Feature
Winner: Big Hero 6
I’d like to win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
The biggest talk concerning Oscar snubs, aside from Selma, has centred on the bizarre
exclusion of The Lego Movie from this
category. How? Why? Since it happens to be the one I’ve seen, unlike the other
nominees, I would have been on safe ground picking it. Now it’s out of the
race, everyone else sees themselves as having a shot.
Historically, while the nominations have been quire open to
leftfield animations, it’s been a crowd-pleaser that has won. Spirited Away and Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit are the only
non-US winners historically. That might rule out Song of the Sea and The Tale
of Princess Kaguya. How to Train Your
Dragon 2 being a sequel may make it less likely (but not at the Golden
Globes, and I’m doubtful of a movie called The
Boxtrolls winning. That leaves Big
Hero 6, the first time a Marvel movie wins a Best Picture Oscar?
Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Leviathan
I’d like to win: Leviathan
Pawel Pawlikowski’s Ida
has a holocaust theme, always popular, although some controversy has attached
itself to this one. Tangerines is a
Georgian film set during the War in Abkhazia, Timbuktu is a Mauritian entry, taking place in the titular country
during its occupation by Ansar Dine, and Wild
Tales is an Argentine anthology feature, produced by Pedro Alodovar and
thematically linked by themes of vengeance and violence. But Russian Leviathan, the Golden Globe winner, is in
a battle with Ida at this point. It’s
a Job-esque tale of corruption in a
small town and the simple man at its centre. It might be interesting to see a
Russian film win Best Foreign Language Film Oscar at this point. Is it likely?
Well, an Iranian film took the prize in 2012.
Best Documentary – Feature
Winner: Virunga
I’d like to win: Virunga
Citizenfour has
profile (Edward Snowden), which could favour it, despite it’s fawning maker. Finding Vivian Maier profiles the street
photographer who died in 2009. Last Days
in Vietnam is self-explanatory. Wim Wenders’ The Salt of the Earth is also about a photographer, Sebastião
Salgado, while Virunga focuses on
conservation workers in the Congolese national park. This one has seen a
partial victory for the campaigners, and I suspect Oscar will want to get
behind that. Most likely, it’s going to be tussle with Ed for supremacy.
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Winner: Joanna
I’d like to win: Pass
This is where guesswork is in full effect (like it wasn’t
before). Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
is an HBO piece about combat veterans, Joanna
a Polish short about a blogger dying of cancer, Our Curse concerns a couple’s whose son has an incurable breathing
disorder. The Reaper is about a
slaughterhouse worker, while White Earth
finds an immigrant mother looking for work in the oil fields of America’s
Northern Plains.
Best Live Action Short Film
Winner: Butter Lamp
I’d like to win: Pass
Aya is a 2012(!)
is an Israeli tale of mistaken identity, Boogaloo
and Graham comes from Northern Ireland and is about chickens and learning
the facts of life, Butter Lamp finds
a photographer capturing Tibetan nomads against diverse backdrops, Parvaneh concerns an asylum seeker in
the Swiss Alps, while The Phone Call has
Sally Hawkings working in a call centre and receiving a call from Jim
Broadbent’s stranger.
Best Animated Short
Winner: The Dam Keeper
I’d like to win: The Bigger Picture
Feast is a Disney
hand-drawn animation, about a dog that likes junk food, Me and My Moulton is a Canadian affair about a girl with weirdo
parents who wants a bike but doesn’t get one, The Bigger Picture concerns caring for an elderly relative, The Dam Keeper has a pig in the future
protecting a town from pollution through maintaining a windmill, while A Singe Life finds a woman travelling
through her life when she plays a peculiar 45. That’s ridiculous. Who plays 45s any more?
Best Original Score
Winner: Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
I’d like to win: Hans Zimmer (Interstellar)
Alexandre Desplat competes against himself, but the
distinctive and upbeat Grand Budapest
beats the insistent Imitation Game
(this might be a Weinstein campaign victory, however). Desplat, it should be
noted, hasn’t yet won an Oscar despite being nominated every year bar 2008
since 2007. It should also be noted that his score for The Monuments Men was raw, rancid tripe. Theory of Everything probably falls into the latter category; very
good for what it is but recognisably of a type. That leaves Interstellar, which is my favourite.
Best Original Song
Winner: Glory (Selma)
I’d like to win: Batman’s Song (Untitled Self Portrait - The Lego Movie) Oh,
wait, not nominated.
Everything is Awesome
might be the Happy of this year’s
ceremony (the best known song but not the winner). Lost Stars from Begin Again,
sung by Keira is this year’s transparent attempt at Once success, so will probably miss (I admit I like it, though). Grateful from Beyond the Lights is an appalling power ballad. Glen Campbell’s I’m Not Gonna Miss You from Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me could get a
sympathy vote given his Alzheimer’s disease, but the song is generic hogwash. Selma song to win, though, so at least Selma gets something. One out of two
ain’t bad.
Best Sound Editing
Winner: American Sniper
I’d like to win: Interstellar
Unbroken is
unloved, The Hobbit has a solitary
nomination and probably won’t make good on it. I think this is between American Sniper and Interstellar, and the latter is looking a bit cold-shouldered. Birdman’s an outsider.
Best Sound Mixing
Winner: American Sniper
I’d like to win: Interstellar
Same as above, although, for a film about percussion, Whiplash might be an obvious choice. Unbroken and Birdman are probably no cigars.
Best Production Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I’d like to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I don’t think Imitation
Game and Mr Turner are flashy
enough to be serious contenders, and Interstellar
is too sci-fi. That puts it between Into
the Woods and Grand Budapest Hotel.
Best Cinematography
Winner: Birdman
I’d like to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
This might be where Roger Deakins finally gets his Oscar…
but for Unbroken? Ida’s black and white photography has
been recognised (black and white photography often is, regardless), while
there’s a lot to be said for the virtuosity of Emmanual Lubezki’s work on Birdman. I’d put it between the Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman (sorry Dick Poop for Mr Turner).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I’d like to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the
Galaxy might have the blue paint thing working against it, while Foxcatcher is all in the nose. The work
on Tilda Swinton in Grand Budapest is
extraordinary, though (and Swinton should have been nominated as Best
Supporting Actress to boot).
Best Costume Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I suspect Maleficent and
Into the Woods will bring up the rear
to the The Grand Budapest Hotel. Inherent Vice and Mr Turner probably stand slim chances.
Best Film Editing
Winner: American Sniper
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I love the editing of Grand
Budapest Hotel; it’s masterfully synced with the score. Whiplash might have a chance, but I’m
less convinced of Boyhood and The Imitation Game’s chances. That
leaves it to American Sniper.
Best Visual Effects
Winner: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Interstellar
A difficult category this. I think Captain America and X-Men
can probably be ruled out, and I have a feeling Interstellar’s more practical approach will be spurned. So it’s
between Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
and Guardians of the Galaxy. If Rise was ignored, then Dawn might be too. Also Guardians was hugely popular, so they’ll
probably want to throw it a bone.
Wins
Boyhood – 3
The Grand Budapest Hotel – 5
American Sniper – 3
Birdman – 2
The Imitation Game – 1
Still Alice - 1
Whiplash – 1
Guardians of the Galaxy – 1
Big Hero 6 – 1
Selma – 1
Leviathan - 1