Prediction - 2016 Oscars
To best my rather pitiful 2015 tally I need guess just over half of the 88th Academy Awards’ winners correctly. The recent Critic’s Choice Awards
mirrored some of my expectations, particularly in respect of the seeing Mad Max: Fury Road is this year’s The Matrix in terms of picking up a
string of awards in the technical categories (The Matrix took four, only beaten by American Beauty with five) and probably ending up the biggest
winner in terms of numbers.
This year has
been instantly red-flagged as evidence of the lack of diversity in Academy
nominations. Whether any of the suggested African-American nominees deserved a
spot (Straight Outta Compton, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Concussion
and Beasts of No Nation have all been
cited as unjust exclusions, although the latter is pointedly both the most
worthy and most likely to have been ignored due to it’s Netflix credentials) is
debatable, but the same might be said annually for any number of different
dubious nods. Spike Lee sized things up when he pointed the finger at the
studios and networks, deciding what gets made and what doesn’t, rather than
awards ceremonies in particular. The header quote comes from last year’s ceremony,
Neil Patrick Harris’ quip in response to applause for David Oyelowo, who was
conspicuously absent from the Best Actor nominations.
As usual,
things can change dramatically in terms of the most favoured during the last
month before the awards. It’s almost as if fatigue with the frontrunners sets in
– all that hype – and a dark horse is needed to shake things up. Looking at Variety’s predictions, I see mine
are mostly the same in the major categories, so it would be an apt awards for
something to go awry. Whatever happens, it will be a surprise at this point if Fury Road doesn’t garner at least half a
dozen statuettes.
Best
Picture
Winner:
Spotlight
I’d like to
win: Mad Max: Fury Road
The “not a
hope” nominations this year are Bridge of
Spies, Brooklyn and Room, although for the latter two just
the nod is enough. The outsider that could (feasibly) gain a late surge is The Martian, but I don’t think it will.
That leaves four. While Mad Max: Fury
Road has been making gains (notably the London Critics’ Circle), I’m not
sure the Academy will be as daring as to go in that direction. If it wasn’t for
Birdman last year, I might be betting
on The Revenant, but, besides being another
Alejandro González Iñárritu entry
and a certain vocal faction declaiming it (including myself, to a point), I
think it has a quality that is just a bit too
awards-worthy. The Big Short and Spotlight are both being lauded for
their takes on big headline stories of recent history, one a comedy, the other
deadly serious. I think Spotlight has
the edge at this point.
Best
Director
Winner:
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
I’d like to
win: George Miller
I’d be very
surprised if Adam McKay or Lenny Abrahamson (despite the latter’s undoubted
chops) went home with a statue. Iñárritu again? He isn’t Tom Hanks, so I’m
not sure he musters that kind of boundless love. And Spotlight seems exactly the kind of movie to win Best Picture but
not take Best Director. So I’m going with George Miller, which in itself would
be recognition enough for Fury Road’s
genius.
Best Actor
Winner:
Leonard DiCaprio (The Revenant)
I’d like to
win: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Redmayne certainly isn’t Tom Hanks, and a vocal
faction aren’t saying terribly nice things about his transgender performance
anyway. Matt Damon did well just to get in there, and I don’t think Bryan Cranston
has the big screen love yet. That leaves Michael Fassbender and Leonardo DiCaprio,
and Leo’s been missed so many times it’s becoming a Pacino/Scorsese thing, so I
suspect he will grab it, even though he should really have won for The Wolf of Wall Street a few years
back.
Best
Actress
Winner:
Brie Larson (Room)
I’d like to
win: Brie Larson
Cate
Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence are over-exposed for awards, and Joy in particular hasn’t elicited a lot
of it. Saoirse Ronan has plenty of time to nab her Best Actress, and Charlotte Rampling
might foreseeably have gained favour (for, unbelievably, her first nomination)
if not for her pronouncements and backtracking on the Oscar whitewashing furore.
Essentially, though, Brie Larson rightly has all the love going her way this
year.
Best
Supporting Actor
Winner:
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
I’d like to
win: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Christian Bale
and Tom Hardy are just filling out the numbers here, while Mark Ruffalo, as
part of an ensemble (Spotlight),
seems like a stretch. Rylance is fantastic, of course, but Stallone’s already
got it sat on the mantelpiece, really. It’s a formality, whether he deserves it
or not.
Best
Supporting Actress
Winner:
Rooney Mara (Carol)
I’d like to
win: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful
Eight)
Possibly
the most open of the big categories, but Kate Winslet and Rachel McAdams aren’t
in serious contention. If the Oscars were looking for career awards, Leigh
might get it, but in the same year Sly is getting his career award (also, Tarantino's a wee-bit out of favour this year)? Between Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander, a lot of
the money is on Vikander, but I’m tipping the former.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Winner: Adam
McKay and Charles Randolph (The Big Short)
I’d like to
win: Emma Donoghue (Room)
With Room, I’m expecting Best Actress to be one
and done, Brooklyn and The Martian may well go away empty handed,
and Carol is respected but… The Big Short tackles recent history in
accessible and redolent way, and may well be rewarded for that (even if it
isn’t the actual best adapted screenplay).
Best
Original Screenplay
Winner: Tom
McCarthy and Josh Singer (Spotlight)
I’d like to
win: Spotlight
Spotlight seems like the only likely winner here, even
if it doesn’t get Best Picture (or maybe especially if it doesn’t), conjuring
memories of the greatness of All the
President’s Men (which Stallone robbed of Best Picture). Ex Machina, much loved but way overrated,
got nominated and that’s sufficient, Inside
Out will take Best Animated Feature, and that’s sufficient, Straight Outta Compton winning would be
adding insult to injury (the white screenwriters taking the plaudits) and Bridge of Spies is decent but no one’s
calling the work on it Oscar-worthy.
Best Animated
Feature
Winner:
Inside Out
I’d like to
win: Anomalisa
Some makers
of animated movies are virtually guaranteed a Best Animated Feature nomination;
Aardman (Shaun the Sheep), Studio
Ghibli (When Marnie Was There), Pixar
(provided it isn’t The Good Dinosaur).
That leaves other crowd pleasers or more experimental/acclaimed fare to fill in
the gaps. This year there’s Brazilian feature Boy and the World and acclaimed Anamolisa,
from Charlie Kaufman. In any other year, Kaufman would probably bag it, but Inside Out is just too damn popular.
Best Documentary
Feature
Winner: Amy
I’d like to
win: pass
I wasn’t
such a fan of Amy, but it seems to
have the throng behind it (see Inside Out
above for the animation side of that). I suspect The Look of Silence, revered as it is, will be seen as too close to
Joshua Oppenheimer’s previous The Act of
Killing (it’s a sort-of sequel, so that’s sort-of understandable). Cartel Land, the grounded side of Sicario’s fantasy land exploration of
the fight against Mexican drug cartels, might have an outside chance. What Happened, Miss Simone? furnishes
another singer documentary, but unlikely to edge Amy, while Winter on Fire:
Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom might be seen as the latest Oscar nom fulfilling
the ceremony’s duty to put the boot in against Putin (see Leviathan last year).
Best Foreign
Language Film
Winner: Son of Saul
I’d like to
win: pass
The Medicine Man-esque Embrace
of the Serpent (from Colombia) represents the eco-nom, Mustang (France) explores the effect of a conservative environment
on five Turkish sisters (the religious repression nom), Theeb (Jordan) a “Bedouin western”, has won a raft of awards
already (the Bedouin western nom), Danish A
War takes a non-Hollywood approach to the Afghanistan conflict (the
anti-war nom). But Son of Saul
(Hungary) is the clear frontrunner, critically lauded, doused with awards, and – the Academy’s favourite – it’s a
holocaust drama.
Best Cinematography
Winner: Emmanuel
Lubezki (The Revenant)
I’d like to
win: John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
If previous
recognition meant the ungarlanded were due, this would be between Ed Lachman
(previously nominated for Far from Heaven)
and Roger Deakins (previously nominated
12 times!) The latter’s work on Sicario
is easily the best thing about it, but I don’t think he’s going to be lucky 13.
John Seale won for The English Patient,
and good as Fury Road is, it’s very evidently
a post-graded beast in parts. Richardson has three previous wins, while Lubeski
won the last two years; that might seem to count him out, but I think he takes
it again, because voters would probably get behind the whole hat trick thing
and there’s the lustre of “all shot in natural light”.
Best Costume
Design
Winner: Sandy
Powell (Cinderella)
I’d like to
win: Jenny Beavan (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Fury Road is the most creative work (Beaven previously
won for Room with a View); against
that is period (Carol, The Danish Girl, The Revenant) and high gloss period fantasy chic; Cinderella looks most expensive, so
could be rewarded in those terms. The Academy likes its shiny baubles. Powell
has three previous Oscars, and is competing against herself with Carol, but I don’t expect that to count
against her.
Best Documentary
Short
Winner: Last
Day of Freedom
I’d like to
win: pass
Red Cross
workers in Liberia during the Ebola outbreak (Body Team 12), the health effects on an aspiring artist of spraying
of Agent Orange during the Vietnam War (Chau,
Beyond the Lines), a documentary about a documentarian (Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah –
possibly too indulgent even for the Oscars, if not for the holocaust
connection), an 18-year-old girl who survives an honour killing in Pakistan (A Girl in the River: The Price of
Forgiveness) and a death penalty piece that takes in themes of mental
health and racism. If Son of Saul
wins, Spectres of Shoah probably
won’t; I suspect A Girl in the River
or Last Day of Freedom will take it, and the latter might play into guilt over the whole whitewashing thing.
Best Film
Editing
Winner: Margaret
Sixel (Mad Max: Fury Road)
I’d like to
win: Mad Max: Fury Road
A rash of
first time nominees here, barring Stephen Mirrione for The Revenant (he previously won for Traffic). The editing of Fury
Road is stupendous, and it would be patently ridiculous not to recognise
it.
Best Make-up
and Hairstyling
Winner: Lesley
Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin (Mad
Max: Fury Road)
I’d like to
win:
More
first-timers. The Revenant does well
in the seamless sense, while The
100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared does
contrastingly really poorly. Fury Road
is a cacophony of great make-up, though.
Best Original
Score
Winner:
Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
I’d like to
win: Ennio Morricone
I’d be
surprised if Thomas Newman or John Williams (a very tepid score from the once
vibrant codger) had a chance, but they’ve got this far. Morricone ought to
receive his lifetime statuette, one long overdue. Johan Johannsson’s Sicario score is very good (actually,
everything about that film is very good, apart
from the screenplay) and Carter Burwell rarely comes up short, but
Morricone deserves this one for an immense body of work.
Best Original
Song
Winner: Til
It Happens To You by Lady Gaga and Diane Warren (The Hunting Ground)
I’d like to
win: Til It Happens To You
Songs from Fifty Shades of Grey, Racing Extinction (otherwise
non-nominated eco doc), Youth, The Hunting Ground and Spectre. The Fifty Shades and Spectre
tracks are the height of bland, competing against achingly sincere (Racing), operatic gymnastics (Youth) and Lady Gaga. Well, Gaga’s the
easy pick; it’s another slow one (they’re all slow ones), but the most
memorable of a fairly mediocre bunch.
Best Production
Design
Winner: Colin
Gibson and Lisa Thompson (Mad Max: Fury
Road)
I’d like to
win:
Everything
here, pretty much, has a chance, but Fury
Road is a real triumph of world building. Failing that, The Revenant is a possible, but this
might also be where The Martian or Bridge of Spies get recognised, if they
do anywhere.
Best Animated
Short
Winner: Prologue
I’d like to
win: World of Tomorrow
Bear Story is a more stylised Toy Story take, Prologue,
a Spartan vs Athenian tale, comes from the great Richard Williams (with wife Imogen
Sutton), Sanjay’s Super Team is the
inevitable Pixar nomination, We Can’t
Live Without Cosmos gives us Cosmonaut dreams of conquest, and World of Tomorrow sounds twee (a girl is
given a tour of the future) but it’s pretty out there, man (and thankfully not
at all like Tomorrowland). It’ll be
pretty obvious if Pixar or the bears take it, so I’m guessing the Williams-recognition
factor might hold some sway.
Best Live
Action Short
Winner: Ave
Maria
I’d like to
win: pass
Shok (based on a true story, the friendship of two
boys in war-torn Kosovo), Ave Maria
(five nuns in the West Bank are challenged by a vow of silence when a family of
Israeli settlers’ car breaks down outside their convent), Day One (an Afghan-American female interpreter in Afghanistan), Everything Will Be Okay (a child caught
in a divorce struggle), Stutterer
(online relationship guy must reveal his verbal affliction when meeting his
love). There’s a tendency in this category to go for light-hearted winners.
Having said that, this year will probably prove me wrong.
Best Sound
Editing
Winner: Mark
A Mangini and David Whie (Mad Max: Fury
Road)
I’d like to
win:
Fury Road, although in another year, this would probably
be where Star Wars was a shoe-in
(it’s like The Matrix and Star Wars in 1999 all over again).
Best Sound
Mixing
Winner: Chris
Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo (Mad
Max: Fury Road)
I’d like to
win:
Fury Road again, although it’s possible The Revenant could upset its sweep in
this or the above category.
Best Visual
Effects
Winner: Andrew
Jackson, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams and Tom Wood (Mad Max: Fury Road)
I’d like to
win:
As with
Sound, one might otherwise have expected Star
Wars, but Fury Road does such a
seamless, integrated job with its effects, it needs to be rewarded as a text book on how to do these things
right.