Prediction - 2017 Oscars
It’s not as
if the Academy Awards aren’t prone to wallowing in a mire of self-congratulatory
massaging of the ego at the best of times, as its members flaunt their purportedly
progressive consciences, so being thoroughly knee-capped last year over the (lack
of) representation of persons of colour must have shaken members up a bit
(whether or not the criticism was deserved). As such, only the least cynical
would see a subsequent year featuring the most black acting nominees as a
coincidence, but since seven minority actors were also nominated in 2007, it
may suggest shaming the Academy into nominating is to little overall effect, except
that maybe there’s now a hint of “Did they deserve, or were the members
pushed?” (of course, the extent to which any selection of contenders is on
merit is often moot anyway, it’s just that this way the mechanisms of the
process may become more unflatteringly exposed).
But such
matters must get in line behind Tinseltown’s almost wall-to-wall loathing (Jon
Voight excepted) for the newly-enthroned President, and it will be interesting
to see the extent to which a desire to protest his incumbency by voting causes
will vie with the more masturbatory wish to shout about how great they are. If
in doubt, one is generally wise to bet on the latter.
My
guesstimate ratio has fluctuated since I began blogging predictions (I use that
word loosely) in 2013 (46%, 66%, 50%, 63%) so I’m maintaining proficiently consistent
averageness. This year I’m adding “The Interesting Choice”, to some of the
categories, because in an era of over-analysed and scrutinised Oscars, where
nothing is really much of a surprise or upset any more, it’s the less likely or
more unusual option that deserves flagging.
(That's from Roberto Benigni's Best Actor acceptance speech in the post line, and no, he really didn't deserve it, and no he didn't win some other Oscars. On the other hand, you can't buy lines like "I would like to be Jupiter! And kidnap everybody and lie down in the firmament making love to everybody!".)
Best
Picture
Winner: La
La Land
I’d like to
win: Hell or High Water
The
Interesting Choice: Arrival
As of
writing, I’ve seen two of the nine Best Picture nominees, so expressing a
preference right now would really be frightfully clueless, especially since I wasn’t
effusive over either of those two. So, for the hell of it, I’ll pick Hell or High Water (even though I
thought its writer, delivered an ultimately hacky script for Sicario). This year, there are a couple
of the usual worthy period prestige pics (Fences,
Hidden Figures), one of which is a
stagy stage adaption (apparently) but will given due respect as it’s courtesy
of Denzel.
Arrival is a rare SF nomination (although, to be fair,
since the number of potential nominees has increased, that’s been a little less
the case), and even less likely than it making the finals is it taking the statuette
(which is why I’ve given it “The Interesting Choice”). Likewise, Lion, which is more your Philomena-ish respectable filler rather
than anything standing a serious chance (it might have been Florence Foster Jenkins, if it wasn’t
taking the piss by being a bit too
shamelessly cheerfully Oscar-ish). Manchester
by the Sea is much-lauded but has possibly peaked in terms of plaudits; it’s
probably regarded as the best of the bunch when all is said and done, but may be
insufficiently aspirational to get behind en masse. Hacksaw Ridge did all it needed by getting Mel back into, if not
good books, then the “If you don’t say anything, we won’t either” realm of the forgiven,
but for all his undeniable talent as a filmmaker it’s likely a bit too thematically
rudimentary to have much of a shot.
So, it’s
down to La La Land and Moonlight, as everyone seems to agree
(it’s much more fun when these things are wide open, but they so rarely are
anymore). Which goes back to what I was saying above: self-congratulation or statement
for the top award? Which is more deserving is irrelevant, but my suspicion is
that, as a low-key winner bagged the big prize last year, and the last big
success to win was 2012 (Argo), that the
Academy is in the mood for a popular, populist winner, one that effuses about
Hollywood itself, and by implication how great the world can be when touched by
its majesty.
Best
Director
Winner: Damien
Chazelle (La La Land)
I’d like to
win: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
The
Interesting Choice: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Might this
be a 2015, 2013 or 2012, where the Best Picture doesn’t yield a Best Director?
Mel’s not getting it, although
direction is likely Hacksaw’s
greatest asset. He’s got one already, apart from anything else, and they
wouldn’t risk him on the podium (which makes him The Interesting Choice). Kenneth
Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
lacks pizazz, and Villeneuve, who just
needs that great screenplay to make a great movie, is the most accomplished
technical talent here but doesn’t have the right picture.
Which means it’s Damien Chazelle or Barry
Jenkins, first timer or second timer. It would be difficult for La La Land to get the top award without
recognising everything about its composition (whereas Chicago, even though its win was unwarranted, understandably saw
voters failing to appreciate its direction was), so I’m calling Chazelle, even
though I think his work on Whiplash
was probably better in context.
Best Actor
Winner: Denzel
Washington (Fences)
I’d like to
win: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
The
Interesting Choice: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
The good
money is on Casey Affleck (Manchester by
the Sea), although anything could happen in a month – such as the
re-reporting of past personal life issues – depending on whether and if who
wants to undermine whom for the benefit of whomsoever (it might be the only
award Manchester by the Sea sees,
which may count for something). What is surely going to happen post-mortem, this
time and for the foreseeable, is scorekeeping on the diversity of those who do
or don’t win. The way it’s looking this year is that the Supporting Actor categories
will see African-American winners, which in its way could be seen as a faint
snub itself (doing just enough to ameliorate the matter but no more).
I don’t see
Gosling (unless voters are blind to his stiff dance moves) or Garfield (playing
a rootable character, but too good to be true, despite being true). Certainly
not Hanks (snooze). So, it’s between Denzel and Casey, and since going with the
odds on every choice is boring (Tom Hanks
boring), and I’ve never truly been that taken with Affleck Jr (by which I don’t
mean he’s Ben’s son or anything), I’m going with Denzel bagging his third
Oscar. It looks good for the history books too. I’d like Viggo to win, because
he’s a cool guy, cooler than Billy Zane even; he’s also the Interesting Choice
here, since he doesn’t play by studio rules.
Best
Actress
Winner: Emma
Stone (La La Land)
I’d like to
win: Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
The
Interesting Choice: Ruth Negga (Loving)
Wise heads
here have Emma Stone and her frog-sized eyes being recognised. I think we can
forget about Natalie Portman and Anette Bening (no one cares enough about their
movies, and they have Oscars anyway). Meryl is nominated every year she has a
film out (which is every year), and she isn’t really trying in Florence Foster Jenkins, so I don’t
think she’s getting another Oscar just yet (unless the Academy were really impressed with her trumping at
the Golden Globes)
Feasibly,
Isabelle Huppert might take it – she took a Globe, after all – but Ruth Negga
might be one of those outside chances who gains surprising last minute momentum.
Which makes her the leftfield, Interesting Choice; she was in a movie no one
much cared for, and has a fairly low profile in her peer group. Ultimately, this
is probably Stone’s to lose – young talent, sure to give a memorable acceptance
speech – although it feels like, if she’s rewarded, Gosling should be too. In
which case, Huppert (wouldn’t it be nice to have Paul Verhoeven given Hollywood
money again, to do something lunatic, as long as he doesn’t go and make another
Hollow Man?)
Best
Supporting Actor
Winner: Mahershala
Ali (Moonlight)
I’d like to
win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
The
Interesting Choice: Dev Patel (Lion)
This is
another where you can quickly forget several of the prospects. Jeff Bridges (Hell and High Water) has been rewarded
enough in recent years (getting the big one, and getting frequently nominated),
and he’s doing that mumble core,
marble-mouth voice again. There’s no will to give Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) anything, I don’t
think, and Dev Patel would probably give an embarrassingly effusive winning
speech, so that might be Interesting.
Which means
it’s between Ali and Lucas Hedges (Manchester
by the Sea), and it’s looking to be here and in Adapted Screenplay that Moonlight gets recognition. Ali’s a fine
actor, so hopefully an award will break him out of sometimes undernourished TV and
supporting roles.
Best
Supporting Actress
Winner: Viola
Davis (Fences)
I’d like to
win: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
The
Interesting Choice: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Hidden Figures may well walk away from the Oscars empty
handed, as I suspect it announces itself as too much of an ensemble for Octavia
Spencer to have a chance.
But Davis’
shoe-in for this award guarantees that Fences
will have something, even if Denzel misses out. The nods to Lion are all filler, like Nicole Kidman’s
botox, while Manchester by the Sea is
Manchester by the Sea. Sorry, Manchester by the Sea (and Michelle
Williams). I’d like to see Harris on the podium, though, because she’s good
even in dreadful parts (like Spectre)
and that makes her the Interesting Choice.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Winner: Moonlight
I’d like to
win: Pass
I don’t
have much of a preference here. Any picture that relies on a Bootstrap Paradox
inherently doesn’t deserve a best writing award (Arrival), no matter how good its constituent parts, while Hidden Figures, from the title down, is a
deluge of wearily worthy intent. Fences
might get it, but the consensus seems to be that its respect for its source
material might be too great to consider what actual adaptation was necessary.
So Moonlight for the win, probably
rightly.
Best
Original Screenplay
Winner: La
La Land
I’d like to
win: Manchester by the Sea
The
Interesting Choice: The Lobster
I’ll
reserve judgement until I’ve seen it, but given Sicario, I suspect Hell or
High High Water had some degree of finessing to make it work on screen, if
it’s that good. 20th Century
Women would have come up with a better title if its screenplay was all
that, and The Lobster is a much
better short film than it is a feature (but would make for an interestingly
oddball winner). La La Land is
pleasant but I don’t think Chazelle’s curious success-fixated psychosis needs
any encouragement. Which means he’ll get it, while the more persevering
Lonergan gets ignored (alternatively, a screenplay snub could reflect that La La Land is something of a Titanic in terms of massaged clichés,
and Manchester by the Sea could come
away smiling).
Best
Animated Feature
Winner: Zootopia
I’d like to
win: Kubo and the Two Strings
The
Interesting Choice: The Red Turtle
The money’s
on Zootropolis/Zootopia/Zoophilia and
I’d be good with that; if it wins it’s the one I can most get behind in this
category since 2011’s Rango, but
we’ll also have had five years on the trot of Disney/Pixar victories. I’m not
that huge on Laika’s previous fare (Boxtrolls,
sheesh!) but they’re a very talented crew, and there needs to be a sense that
variety of form and style of animation can get a look in (Wallace and Gromit was 11 years ago, Spirited Away 13).
Best
Documentary Feature
Winner: O.J.:
Made in America
I’d like to
win: O.J.: Made in America
Films
concerning the migrant crisis (Fire at
Sea), autism and Disney (Life,
Animated, which certainly gives the Mouse House rosy affirmations it surely
doesn’t need – the trailer is almost unfeasibly uplifting), a history of racism
in the US as seen via writer James Baldwin (I
Am Not Your Negro), a look at race in the US criminal justice system (13th, in respect of the 13th
Amendment). The third picture focussing on race in the US, O.J.: Made in America is currently looking the most likely, as the
acclaim has been near-universal (100% on Rotten Tomatoes, for what that’s
worth).
Best
Foreign Language Film
Winner: The
Salesman
I’d like to
win: Toni Erdmann
No
holocaust movies nominated this year, so it’s wide open. The smart money is on
German-Austrian comedy Toni Erdmann,
in which a father reconnects with his daughter in antic fashion, and it’s
certainly something of a breakout from the oft-ignored foreign language niche. However,
the Trump travel band, and generally renewed appetite for Iranian sanctions,
might elicit voting sympathy, forestalling Toni’s irrepressibility.
Also
nominated are Tanna (love against the
odds on the titular South Pacific island), Danish Land of Mine (a bit of poor pun, since it’s about German POWs
clearing landmines post WWII), the aforementioned The Salesman (a production of Death
of a Salesman occupies the backdrop to a couple’s domestic drama) and
Swedish A Man Called Ove (the one
with all the makeup, in which grumpy, bereaved Ove find something worth living
for again, suggesting it’s not just Hollywood that mixes up maudlin treats).
Best
Cinematography
Winner: La La Land
I’d like to
win: Arrival
However the
big night washes out, La La Land will
take home the most awards, although Arrival
is definitely the better-shot movie (whatever Villeneuve’s faults with
narrative, they don’t apply to his visualisations, working here with Bradford Young), and Silence probably is too, but La
La has grand design in its favour.
Best
Costume Design
Winner: La
La Land
I’d like to
win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
This is
supposedly another La La win,
although I’d be hard-pressed to tell you why (as would most, I suspect, when it
comes down to it). Empire says never to bet against Colleen Atwood… No one here
is inspired, but her Fantastic Beasts
work at least registers in the mind. It comes to something when four out of the
five noms are for period pieces (hopefully next year we’ll see Besson’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
make the final five).
Best
Documentary Short
Winner: Joe’s
Violin
I’d like to
win: pass
Subject
matter includes those making end-of-life decisions (Extremis), a Greek coast guard captain dealing with the migrant crisis
(4.1 Miles) a Polish Holocaust
survivor’s – what a relief, there had to be a Holocaust piece in here somewhere
– violin finds a new owner (Joe’s Violin),
the experiences of the children of the Free Syrian Army commander (Watani: My Homeland) and volunteer
rescue workers of the Syrian Civil Defence (The
White Helmets).
Best Film
Editing
Winner: La
La Land
I’d like to
win: Arrival
One area I
can’t fault Chazelle is this category;
Whiplash was edited to within an inch of its life, and if La La Land is more sedate in comparison,
it’s still very keenly judged. So is Arrival,
though, which is why it gets my vote (even if I ultimately prefer the former as
a whole to the latter).
Best
Make-up and Hairstyling
Winner: Star
Trek Beyond
I’d like to
win: Star Trek Beyond
Obviously,
for making it look like Simon Pegg has hair. Suicide Squad must be getting recognition for deceptively intricate
“bad” make-up and hair. As for A Man
Called Ove, well the make-up is much better than the 100-year-old Man’s, but it isn’t terribly exciting. Not that
make-up is terribly exciting most of
the time, outside of select genres.
Best
Original Score
Winner: Justin Hurwitz (La
La Land)
I’d like to
win: La La Land
The Interesting
Choice: Mica Levi (Jackie)
No contest,
particular since the movie’s non-songs are more impacting than its full-blown
numbers. But Mica Levi, who furnished Under
the Skin with a masterfully unsettling score, has contributed something interesting,
if less disturbing than for that picture, to
Jackie.
Best
Original Song
Winner: City
of Stars (La La Land)
I’d like to
win: City of Stars (La La Land)
Another
smart pick. I don’t much care for the other La
La nominee, the Trolls one can go
and do one, the Moana one is Disney
Animated Ballads 101, and as for Mr Sting… He was better in Zoolander 2.
Production
Design
Winner: La
la Land
I’d like to
win: Hail, Caesar!
La La Land will win, undoubtedly, but anyone with eyes
can see Hail, Caesar! should get it.
Best
Animated Short
Winner: Piper
I’d like to
win: Pear Cider and Cigarettes
The Interesting
Choice: Blind Vaysha
There’s a
Pixar guys pic (but not Pixar itself), Borrowed
Time, linocut-style abstract piece Blind
Vaysha, Robert Valley’s Pear Cider
and Cigarettes, Pearl, and
Pixar’s Piper. Pixar may well win
this, but I’m guessing Theodore Ushev’s acceptance speech for Blind Vaysha would be interesting, as he
says he fainted when he heard he made the final five.
Best Live
Action Short
Winner: Silent
Nights
I’d like to
win: Timecode
Terrorism
under the spotlight in a police station interview (Ennemis Interieurs), Jane Birkin train whimsy (Le Femme et le TGV), a kids’ choir with a secret (er, Sing), security guards separated by day
and night shifts (Timecode) and
bittersweet Danish Christmases and illegal immigrants (Silent Nights).
Best Sound
Editing
Winner: La La Land
I’d like to
win: Arrival
This is
between Arrival, La La and Hacksaw Ridge.
Mel does good visceral sound effects editing, but do they want to actually
acknowledge his movies with a statuette yet? Like Hidden Figures, it may find itself empty-handed at the end of the
night.
Best Sound
Mixing
Winner: La
La Land
I’d like to
win: La La Land
These
technical categories come down to persuasion much of the time; the man hours on
a Michael Bay 13 Hours are probably
far greater and more intricate than on La
La, but that won’t be reflected in the result.
Best Visual
Effects
Winner: The
Jungle Book
I’d like to
win: Kubo and the Two Strings
There’s no
doubt The Jungle Book gets this,
although I didn’t care for it, but the achievements of Kubo even getting this far is worth feting. Doctor Strange isn’t outlandish enough for an award, while Deepwater Horizon is probably best
forgotten all round. Rogue One has
some very lovely work, but also the Phantom Moff Tarkin.
Agree? Disagree? Mildly or vehemently? Let me know in the comments below.