Prediction
2017
Box Office
Welcome to my annual rune-casting for the
biggest box office of the year. Which, if previous form is any indication, even
the most woefully ill-informed can get it right occasionally. But then, I used
to love the forecasts in the likes of Premiere
magazine, and seeing how wrong (or right) they could be. A few under
consideration that didn’t make my Top 50 include A Cure for Wellness, My
Little Pony, Split, American Made, The Greatest Showman, Smurfs:
The Lost Village and XXX: The Return
of Xander Cage, so they’re all sure to do extra well to spite me. If you’re
so inclined, you can skip to the end and check my 2016 score card.
50-41
50. It
WW: $125m, US: $65m
Stephen King adaptations tend to attract a
lot of attention, but this has to be balanced against how modestly most of them
perform. Of the 40-odd movies relating to his works, maybe a quarter could be called
decent-sized hits, and less than a handful as really big ones (The Green
Mile is atypical, both in terms of subject matter and audience). It previously surfaced on TV, and the advance
publicity isn’t doing much to sell it as unmissable (the new Pennywise
definitely doesn’t have that Tim Curry factor). (8 September)
49. The
Greatest Showman
WW: $130m, US: $70m
Playing PT Barnum is right up Hugh
Jackman’s street, and with Rebecca Ferguson, Michelle Williams and, er, Zac
Effron, this one is no doubt setting its sights on Oscar season. If it finds a
great story in there too, all the better. (UK: 29 December, US: 25 December)
48. Geostorm
WW: $135m, $60m
Dean Devlin directing a sci-fi disaster movie
might be sure thing, if he was Roland
Emmerich. As it is, Gerard Butler’s presence is probably a reliable yardstick
of how big this won’t be. As for what transpires, the title is all you need to
know. (20 October)
47. God
Particle (title TBA)
WW: $135m, US: $75m
Cloverfield
3-ish, with JJ Abram’s magical mystery box ensuring
interest in this tale of a missing Earth and a space shuttle encountered by the
crew of a space station (provided Life,
also set in space and involving a crew encountering something monstrous,
doesn’t steal its thunder). Weirdness will ensue. And maybe a space monster.
(US: 27 October)
46. Snatched
US: $135m, US: $90m
Trainwreck announced Amy Schumer as a comedian who could carry a movie,
self-penned at that. But, if her personality is divisive Stateside, it’s just
plain unknown most of everywhere else. Here she’s rewriting Katie Dippold (Dippold
is evidently struggling with screenplays, be they Heat or Ghostbusters) and
directed by Jonathan Levine (a good director, when not encumbered by boorish
oaf Seth Rogen). This will live or die on Schumer’s chemistry with Goldie Hawn
as her mum, though (it’s a vacation-gone-wrong movie, in Ecuador, but alas
without Chevy Chase). (12 May)
45. Life
WW: $140m, US: $55m
Life on Mars is discovered by Jake
Gyllenhaal, Ryan Reynolds and Rebecca Ferguson. Daniel Espinosa (Safe House and Child 44) directs what may be a bit of a Prometheus rip-off. Or an Alien
rip-off. Or maybe a Leviathan
rip-off. Or, if we’re lucky, a Deepstar
Six rip-off. May benefit from having the drop on Alien: Covenant. Alternatively, joe public may just decide to wait
eight weeks. (24 March)
44. The
Lego Ninjagio Movie
WW: $145m, US: $80m
The second Lego movie of the year, based,
so I’m told by Wikipedia, on their similarly-named toy line. I’d have thought
more modest takings than the earlier Lego
Movie, or the Bat-brand, are in
store, but I’m quite willing to admit to being entirely in the dark. Maybe Ninjagio is even more popular than DC
piss-takes? (UK: 13 October, US: 22 September)
43. The
Snowman
WW: $160m, US: $70m
The Fass playing a Norwegian detective, but
in English. They still do that, do they? Of course, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did really well! And Child 44! If the movie is great, that
won’t matter a jot, but it might have been better to relocate it, all told. (13
October)
42. Annabelle
2
WW: $165m, US: $55m
The first movie made $90m more than my
prediction for the sequel, but this is milking on a different scale to The Conjuring, where viewers are coming
back for the couple and new hauntings. This will surely get predictable.
Surely? (US: 11 August)
41. The
Dark Tower
WW: $165m, US: $70m
The year’s other Stephen King adaptation, with
a convoluted/hopeful-leaning plan for TV/movie spanning sequels and a rough
development hell period that saw Ron Howard exit as director (phew!) but still
finds Akiva Goldsman credited as writer (along with director Nikolaj Arcel and
two others). I do wonder what the broader appetite is for this, outside of the
devoted fan base, and if it isn’t just a bit too elusive/involved. Still, a decision
to use the novel as a leaping-off point, and a cast including Matthew
McConaughey and Idris Elba suggest this should be interesting at very least. (28
July)
40-31
40. The
Star
WW: $175m, US: $85m
A donkey hooks up with an assortment of anthropomorphic
chums en route to Bethlehem, so indoctrinating us with introducing us to
the true story of Christmas. Hey, it might just work, might go great guns, but
it depends entirely on tone – too whacky and you turn off the core/key
Christian audience, too reverential and you alienate easily-bored tiny tots.
Possibly one more likely to prove a long-term earner for the studio (Sony) than
an instant megahit. Donkeys definitely have potential as cinematic fodder (Shrek) but The Musicians of Bremen might have been a better place to start. (UK:
15 December US: 10 November)
39. The
Coldest City
WW: $180m, US: $85m
Charlize Theron in a Cold War thriller
blessed with action beats from John Wick
guy David Leitch. It could be a keeper, and it has the jump on J-Law doing
Soviet spy work. Probably the cooler choice to like, if not the most successful
one. (11 August)
38. Blade
Runner 2049
WW: $205m, US: $75m
Did anyone even give serious thought to
whether this made financial sense before giving it the greenlight? The
much-loved status of The Thing didn’t
stop the “prequel” bombing, and just because Harrison Ford was in two other
franchises where he barely showed up (consciously) 30 years later and they made a mint doesn’t mean this one
will (he should do Hanover Street 2,
if this one cleans up). I hope I’m wrong, and I hope audiences flock to it and it’s
an instant classic, but I’m having trouble seeing this one find a larger
audience right now. (21 July)
37. Baywatch
WW: $210m, US: $85m
It’s the old, make-a-wacky-version-of-a-much-loved-but-terrible-TV-show
routine, but I doubt Baywatch will
have the breakout appeal of 21 Jump
Street (unless it really is really funny). Dwayne Johnson is loved but no
sure thing, and Seth Gordon is hit-and-miss to put it mildly. (UK: 12 May, US:
26 May)
36.
Jumanji
WW: $230m, US: $110m
We had a kind-of Jumanji the other year with Goosebumps
(Jack Black’s in this too), and then there’s Dwayne Johnson in family guy mode.
The selling point will be the updated effects, though, although it arrives a
week after Star Wars Episode VIII, so
it’s a toss-up if it rides the wave of a box office boon or is simply drowned.
(UK: 29 December, US: 22 December)
35. The
Emoji Movie
WW: $235m, US: $105m
There’s nothing quite like flagrant whoring
for child dollars. Last year The Angry
Birds Movie failed to fulfil its potential ($350m) but was perhaps about
three years late to find its ideal roost. Emoji? I’m not sure where to start,
except that its intentions are hopefully more towards the irreverent and
anarchic than faux-sincere. Gene (TJ Miller), a multi-expressional emoji, sets
out to become a normal emoji. Mmm-hmmm. Yes, I can see where this is going, and
it will likely make me bloik. Steven Wright is voicing a character on the plus
side, while James Corden doing likewise adds to the roster of negatives. (4
August)
34. Dunkirk
WW: $240m, US: $95m
Maybe, just maybe, there’s a riveting
plotline concealed within Dunkirk
that is being carefully concealed by the first trailer. But the message I’m
getting from Christopher Nolan’s push for non-SF genre (read: Oscar)
respectability is stolid, inert, more the kind of self-consciously prestigious WWII
movie we thought had gone out with the ‘60s and the likes of The Longest Day, or at very latest when
Sir Dickie did A Bridge Too Far. Can its
writer-director fashion a hit just on the basis of it being a Nolan joint? Tom
Hardy squeezing himself into a spitfire, Sir Ken filling in for Olivier again
and Mark Rylance being contractually obliged to appear in every British period
piece? This could be another Pearl Harbor,
box office-wise (a disappointment given the cost, and critically maligned),
although Nolan obviously isn’t as crass as Michael Bay. On the other hand,
future trailers may reveal some core attraction I’ve as yet undetected, or it
may arrive at time when ripe propaganda is the flavour of the day… (21 July)
33. Mother/Day
6/TBC
WW: $245m, US: $115m
J-Law’s run with David O Russell somewhat
hit the rocks with Joy, and Passengers appears to be a relative dud,
so can current other half Darren Aronofsky put her back on top? He’s making a
habit of eking out successes from unlikely material (Black Swan, Noah), and I
don’t doubt that what, on paper, sounds a bit mainstream (uninvited guests
arrive at a couple’s home and disruption ensues) will wring out wilfully warped
once it has been through his hands. And the rest of the cast (Domhnall Gleeson,
Javier Bardem, Michelle Pfeiffer, Ed Harris) suggest thespian fireworks. This
is perhaps a conservative estimate, as no one would have expected the success Swan saw, but also much depends on how much
Lawrence’s star is or is not wilting when it’s released.
32. Resident
Evil: The Final Chapter
WW: $250m, US: $40m
The last couple of Resident Evils – admittedly going back five years – made more than $200m each at the box office,
on medium-sized budgets, so this trumpeted fifth and final instalment (no doubt
preceding an inevitable reboot) is likely to comfortably make its money back
and then some. The series’ Stateside showings have generally been fairly
indifferent (such that less than 20% of the gross came from the US and Canada
for Retribution) but internationally
it has gone pretty much from strength to strength. Paul W S Anderson directs
his missus again (even Len Wiseman didn’t maintain such dedication with the Underworlds). Not bad for a 15-year-old
franchise coming from the generally-doomed computer game adaptation genre.
31. Red
Sparrow
WW: $265m, US: $115m
How’s J-Law’s Russkie accent? Here’s your
chance to find out. Likely to be slick and stylish, but as ultimately empty as Hunger Games (yes, I did just say that).
Lawrence is coming off a not-so-hot streak, but she still has time for several
comebacks before she reaches 30, and this might be the first of them. If it’s
not a continuation of audiences getting a wee bit fatigued by her. (10
November)
30-29
30. Ferdinand
WW: $270m, US: $75m
This is, apparently, the greatest juvenile
classic since Winnie the Pooh, but
being an illiterate swine, I’d never even heard of it (and I don’t think I’ve
seen the Disney short Ferdinand the Bull).
Carlos Saldanha (the Rio movies) is
directing for Blue Sky/Fox, and if those are anything to go by it will be
likeable but slight, in desperate need of meaty, mirthful supporting voice work
from Jermaine Clement. I’m not sure the release date is an ideal one, either
(although, Sing seems to have thrived
in a similar slot). (22 December)
29. King
Arthur: Legend of the Sword
WW: $270m, US: $95m
Guy Ritchie gets all pre-medieval on our
asses. 2015’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
was mostly well-received, but audiences generally just weren’t interested,
either in its stars or its legacy. Arthurian legend has more cachet, but the
question mark hangs over whether they want to see a laddish take on one of the mythic tales. And, without Downey Jr
as a lead, how high Ritchie can take a movie? Particularly one with Charlie Hunnam
as the titular kingly type. (12 May)
28. Pitch
Perfect 3
WW: $275m, US: $135m
Even given that Picture Perfect 2 made more than twice its predecessor’s
take, it was top heavy on the US end, more so than the original. As such, I’m
dubious of how much more it can broaden its following (of course, I failed
completely to consider that the sequel might be some kind of minor phenomenon, and I
may be doing likewise here). Something of a plateau, perhaps. (22 December)
27. The
Boss Baby
WW: $285m, US: $115m
DreamWorks Animation’s Tom McGrath has good
form… with the Madagascars. Megamind, not so much. This
is based on Marla Frazee’s 2010 book and has the queasy-sounding premise of
Baby Boss Templeton (Alec Baldwin), a preternaturally adult baby, and his
seven-year-old brother proving that love is an infinite force in the world as
they foil a plot by the CEO of Puppy Co. Michael McCullers (Austin Powers) scripted, off the back of his work on the (very good) Mr Peabody
and Sherman. The trailer makes it look like a Secret Life of Pets
kind of take on little ones, while smeared with the usual irritating,
ingratiating DW pop-sensibility. But who knows, it worked for Trolls… reasonably well. How about
someone makes a Baby Face Finlayson
movie? Where’s the Beano Cinematic
Universe when you need it? (UK: 7 April US: 31 March)
26. The
Mummy
WW: $290m, US: $85m
Like Paramount and Transformers, Universal’s development of
a whole new cinematic Universe with its horror legacy has the whiff of
desperation. Not because it isn’t necessarily an idea with potential, but
because the purveyors thus far leave something to be desired and simply don’t
appear to have the sensibility or skill to pull it off. Certainly, this looks
like a CG-mess, and has already become infamous thanks Tom’s disintegrating
aircraft scream. I mentioned Transformers,
but at least they have consistency on their side. Universal seems to be taking the
hope-for-the best-approach that is currently slaying DC’s prospects of becoming
a creative challenger to Marvel. (9 June)
25. Murder
on the Orient Express
WW: $295m, US: $120m
This sort of prestige
Agatha Christie adaptation tends to sell itself. Just wind it up and set it
off. Sir Ken is sure to ham it up something rotten as Poirot, but whether it’s
on Finney levels, we’ll just have to wait and hope. As for his direction, he’s certain
to break out the Dutch angles, so that’s something to look forward to (a world
in which Ken is a bankable Hollywood director is one I never thought to see; a
sign of the coming apocalypse, no doubt). And will Johnny Depp ham it up as
much as his co-star, or just settle for some outrageous facial appliances? In
fairness, it’s a good 45 years since the last Hollywood adaptation, so there’s
a whole new generation not to know whodunit, and the rest of us can settle for
seeing other players inhabiting familiar parts and art direction. (UK: 24
November, US: 22 November)
24. Captain
Underpants: The First Epic Movie
WW: $295m, US: $135m
DreamWorks Animation has definitely been on
a losing streak of late, How to Train Your Dragons aside, hence their
increasing turn towards external properties to beef up their takings. Even that
hasn’t necessarily provided the yields they hoped for (Trolls, Mr Peabody and Sherman), but David
Soren, the director of one of their most resounding commercial misfires Turbo, may be on firmer ground with an
adaption of Dav Pilkey’s series of children’s books. Even then, while this has
the lead on a crowded animation month (Cars
3, Despicable Me 3), the studio that
once frequently eclipsed Pixar will have to settle for distant third place. (UK: 26 May, US: June 2)
23. Paddington
2
WW: $325m, US: $85m
The success of Paddington globally is a further indication of the diminishing
reliance on the US as the primary source of box office receipts (only 29% of
the gross was taken there), and probably partly explains the lack of hurry to
release this sequel across the pond; as per the original, it’s out in the early part of the following
year. While the character is very well known, his success was no sure thing, so
it will be interesting to see how
much the first film’s near-universal positive word of
mouth has an effect. I’m going for the moderate verdict, although it would be
very nice to see Paddington 2 reach
giddy heights. As for Hugh Grant appearing, well he’s surely the perfect foil
for a talking bear. (UK: 10 November, US: January 2018)
22. Valerian
and the City of a Thousand Planets
WW: $380m, US: $80m
Lucy, an unremarkable slice of rote sci-fi and not even lightyears near Luc Besson’s
best, put him back on the map as a director, even if his Europacorp pictures
have been churning out hits big (Taken)
and not quite so big (Transporter) for
years. Part of the disappointment with Lucy
was that it had no real wit or personality, certainly nothing like his previous
foray into the genre, The Fifth Element.
If that picture is anything to go by, Valerian will have a rather tepid reception
in the US, with the question generally being how big it can get as a
non-Hollywood science fiction blockbuster from mostly unknown source material
(outside of France) and unproven stars. (UK: 4 August, US: 21 July)
21. Logan
WW: $395m, US: $150m
The forty minutes shown to select preview
audiences this year elicited a few comparisons to Fury Road, but I can’t help but be sceptical. Old Wolverine, with a
junior sidekick and an even older Charles Xavier, directed by James Mangold (a
safe pair of hands, but never anything more than that) and furnished with an R
rating off the back of Deadpool’s
success. But does anyone care? I may be wrong, and this might, if not Days of Future Past, reach Apocalypse figures, but neither of the
solo Wolverines did all that
impressively (£373m and $415m), and the tepid response to Apocalypse may have further dampened appetites for Fox product that
isn’t wilfully different and anarchic. In its favour: a very pre-summer release
date. (3 Mar)
20-11
20. Kingsman: The Golden Circle
WW: $400m, US: $135m
The Secret Service’s surprise success ($414m globally) was much
deserved for the most part, but can the sequel sport inventiveness enough to
match audiences’ initially hankering? If anyone can do it, Matthew Vaughn can,
and he’s been very sage to resuscitate Colin Firth. It remains to be seen if
this can top the original – it’s a tricky environment for sequels just now,
where presumed sure things aren't necessarily taking off, and this blend might
be too ill-disciplined for some returnees – but it’s certainly more deserving
of reward than the Bond series it is
evoking and reacting against. (UK: 29 September, US: 5 October)
19. Ghost
in the Shell
WW: $415m, US: $85m
The accusations of whitewashing that have
greeted the live-action Ghost in the
Shell might be easier to ignore if the movie looked especially distinctive
or interesting. Unfortunately, director Rupert Sanders appears have taken the Terminator Genisys approach: CGI
overload that masks any individual merits. That, and selling it based on Scarlett
Johansson wearing a flesh-coloured body stocking. Johansson looks particularly
vapid (as she often does without a strong director) and the visuals entirely Blade Runner derivative (which they are).
Ironically, given the lead casting, Paramount/DreamWorks surely have in mind this
cleaning up in Asian markets. Less certain is home turf, although I doubt it
will do as badly as Warcraft, unless
it outright stinks. (31 March)
18. Cars
3
WW: $425m, $160m
A franchise based on the enthusiasm of John
Lasseter for four wheels. That, and merchandising sales; reportedly, the series
is one of Pixar’s biggest successes in that area. Cars 2 grossed more worldwide than the original ($562m to $462m)
but took a dip at home ($191m to $244m). I don’t see Cars 3 making serious inroads. Even less juniors have probably been
crying out for more adventures from Lightning McQueen in his six-year absence
from the screen than in the five years between Cars and Cars 2, and
Pixar only has a two-week head start on Despicable
Me 3 before there’s a much more enticing and cute distraction (more Minions!) There’s also the advertising,
which is attracting attention for its downbeat “realism”, but may not translate
into parents willing to risk upsetting tots. (UK: 14 July, US: 16 June)
17. The
Lego Batman Movie
WW: $435m, US: $210m
It seems that each year there are more and
more animations competing for the same territory, and somehow the boom hasn’t led
to bust (yet), although invariably it’s the same big studios cropping up. It’s
just that now the likes of Universal and WB are able to compete in a game that
was once sewn up by DreamWorks and Disney/Pixar, with the occasional nudge from
Fox. Warner’s Storks did unremarkably
last year, but came reasonably cheap (they’re better at budgeting than their
peers). Is the Lego brand an
unlimited font of animation gold, or is it a flash in the pan? I suspect the
cachet of Will Arnett’s Batman, particularly in light of WB’s hash-up of the
main DC brand, will see this one to returns comparable to 2014’s The Lego Movie, but when it comes to
September’s The Lego Ninjago Movie,
that may be the real tester. (10 February)
16. Alien:
Covenant
WW: $440m, US: $130m
The Internet would have you know Prometheus was an appalling insult to
the intelligence, except for those who grudgingly admit it looked quite pretty.
And those who grudgingly admit that, although it was really stupid, it was also
quite watchable. And those who readily admit that they quite liked it for all
its flaws (that would be me). The point being, for all the brickbats it
received, quite a lot of people did
like Prometheus, albeit they’re not
necessarily willing to admit it openly, certainly enough to justify a sequel
that will be getting up close with the xenomorphs themselves. The air of
familiarity in the trailer for Covenant
may be both a good and bad thing for the future of the series (playing safe is
what leads to Alien Vs. Predators),
but there’s always Michael Fassbender’s dual androids to mix things up. For all
its potential, I’m not expecting a hugely different performance to the
original, barring a release in China. (19 May)
15. Fifty
Shades Darker
WW: $475m, US: $150m
Does Fifty
Shades of Grey stinking matter? Such trifling details did little to
diminish the Twilight series; I’m not
sure this series will grow, though, and as such it might be reasonable for the
sequel to take something of a hit. The question is, how much? Director James
Foley will be attempting to add some dramatic weight to the proceedings, so
good luck to him there. (10 February)
14. Kong:
Skull Island
WW: $505m, US: $180m
I don’t know if it’s something to be
celebrated or maligned that there’s a seriously-considered Kong-Godzilla
cinematic universe. Not in an elitist sense, but simply in terms of the desperation
with which any and every franchise branding, post-MCU, is considered something
to pursue. Godzilla did very nicely
in 2014, considering its only interesting character was killed off in the
opening reel and it spent the rest of the time rather hopelessly trying to
integrate its cardboard characters with the spectacle (so not too unlike Gareth
Edwards subsequent Rogue One, then…)
If we’re to go by the takings of Godzilla,
Peter Jackson’s King Kong and the 1998
Roland Emmerich one, something in the $500-600m range seems about right; Jordan
Vogt-Roberts’ movie looks great, but then there’s the thing of not really evidencing
how these “proper” thesps fit into his world, or how the comedy will work (John
C Reilly). I guess, at least they’re attempting
a lighter touch somewhere in there. If this follows Godzilla’s example, initial huge interest will taper off quite
quickly, unless the picture has hidden, as yet untouched upon character or plot
merits. (10 March)
13. Coco
WW: $525m, US: $235m
Pixar has already fallen foul of
accusations of cultural appropriation with regard to its movie based on the
Mexican Day of the Dead (but hey, if there’s money to be made, it’s a great
leveller, hence bringing on board Mexican-American cartoonist Lalo Alcarez, who
had received attention for his condemnatory depiction of a Godzilla-esque
Muerto Mouse – “It’s coming to trademark
your cultura”). Off the back of the well-received, but criticised for
depicting Polynesian stereotypes in some quarters, Moana, Disney is well aware there are greenbacks to be reaped from
plundering diverse cultural histories and myths. There’s also, in the
forthcoming Trumptopia, sure to be an added spotlight on a movie based around a
country he plans (or, at least, has shouted loudly about) building a defensive
wall against.
All that aside, one has to consider the
form for Pixar fare when it’s using straight human protagonists. Up did very well, Brave less spectacularly, and it comes out in November, which may
not do it many favours with Star Wars
released less than a month later. On top of which, Coco’s lead character Miguel, obsessed with music in a house that
bans it, finds himself in the Land of the Dead on a quest to find his musical
idol. The alt-reality might go down as well as in Inside Out. Alternatively, parents may blanche at the prospect of
complicated explanations of death and the afterlife. My guess is that it will
do respectably but unremarkably, by Pixar standards. (UK: 8 December US: 22
November)
12. War
for the Planet of the Apes
WW: $605m, US: $210m
Dawn made $200m more than Rise,
and with that kind of audience vote of confidence, the sky ought to be the
limit for this series. But I’m dubious how much a movie that is thus far
selling itself as more ape-human
fighting is going to stand out as a must-see. Who knows, maybe Fox is right,
since the original series experienced diminishing returns as it mixed things up
with the end of the world, time travel, an ape uprising and then, in the last comatose
sequel, a war. As precisely made as these movies are, they seem to have
foregone offering any narrative surprises. I hope Matt Reeves proves me wrong.
(14 July)
11. Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest/Salazar’s
Revenge
WW: $635m, US: $150m
Series that suddenly hit audience fatigue
point can leave execs scratching their heads. It was all going so well for Ice Age, quality be damned. And Transformers, well, it hasn’t nose-dived,
yet. On Stanger Tides experienced significant shrinkage Stateside, but
still made more than $1bn globally. But since then, Johnny Depp’s star power
has been lukewarm at best; The Lone
Ranger and Alice Through the Looking
Glass did nothing great and mostly suggested no one would show up to
anything he showed up in, and then there’s been all that bad press regarding
his personal life. On the other hand, it has new blood director wise. On the other other hand, it has Orlando Bloom
back. And Brendan Thwaites as his
son. If Captain Jack Sparrow is able to make audiences remember why they took
to him so originally, this could yet perpetuate the series, but I rather expect
it will perform more like the original, which won’t be what Disney wants. (26
May)
10-1
10. Beauty
and the Beast
WW: $640m, US: $265m
There’s mucho anticipation for this latest
live-action version of a Disney classic, much more so than for Cinderella, which made a
nothing-to-be-sneezed-at $544m in 2015. And even given that the Beast looks more
like the non-descript, snuffly, transformed Dee Wallace at the end of The Howling than anything bestial or
(whisper) leonine, this will have to throw some serious spanners in the works
not to do very well, thank you. It could feasibly reach the (fluky) hit level
of the desperately average Maleficent
($759m), and with Bill Condon directing the chances are it’s actually more
interesting than the workmanlike retread initial trailer suggests, but if it’s
a movie that only reminds you how the animated “original” is superior, it may
encounter difficulties. (UK: 17 March, US: 22 March)
9. Thor:
Ragnarok
WW: $665m, US: $225m
Coming out in November might not be so wise
for this Thor this time round. March
might have been a better bet. With Justice
League two weeks later and Star Wars
five, its window isn’t that large, and the cachet of the title character
sharing screen time with the Hulk and the potential wackier approach of Taika
Waititi providing more of a Guardians of
the Galaxy vibe may hit the jackpot, but on the other hand it may feel like
it’s trying too hard for the loaded Gunn factor. (UK: 27 October, US: 3
November)
8. Wonder
Woman
WW: $695m, US: $255m
While the trailers for Wonder Woman have made it look by far the most assured and clued-in
of the DC Universe thus far (admittedly, not hard), over-estimating its
potential would be foolhardy. Gal Gadot was easily the best part of Batman v Superman, and that should do
her in good stead, and any shortfall certainly won’t (or oughtn’t) be blamed on
a female-led superhero movie. If this catches on in a big way it could be
looking at $100m or so more; if it’s a bit of a botch job (but a very well
packaged botch job), it could struggle to the $600m mark. (2 June)
7. Justice
League
WW: $725m, US: $260m
How close are WB to a superhero-who-cried-wolf
scenario? They opened BvS and it
topped out at $873m, way short of their (probable) dreams of $1.5bn.
Conversely, Suicide Squad, which
began life with modest expectations but grew out of control, finished only
$130m shy of that, and for all that it received rancorous notices, didn’t drop precipitously following its
opening. Right now, Justice League
looks like more of the same as BvS,
which may not give it much hope, prior to the post-Snyder reset of the
barely-started-but-already-drowning DC Universe, but if Wonder Woman does well (and it will surely open), Justice League may yet rekindle some
good will, even if it gets a similar to BvS
slaughtering from critics, and a nonplussed response from audiences. (17
November)
6. Transformers: The Last Knight
WW: $895m, US: $205m
TransFourmers was the second most successful in the franchise (which has a new
trilogy planned, and a Bumblebee spin off; Paramount are really desperate for a movieverse that floats, besides Mission: Impossible), but by some
measure the least profitable in the US. And you can trace that trend globally, with
the exception of China where it made £320m, doubling the gross of Dark of the Moon. If we’re to assume for
a moment that there’s a general waning in interest in the series (due to inter-changeability
as much as anything) and that China is beginning to slow down in terms of box
office growth, this one may well not top $1bn, no matter how much it’s pepped
up with Arthurian legend, Adolf and IMAX 3D. (23 June)
5. Spider-Man:
Homecoming
WW: $925m, US: $325m
There’s no doubting that Spidey’s arrival
in Civil War, in the form of Tom
Holland, did much to wash away the bad taste of The Amazing Spider-Mans (which, lest we forget, were in no way box
office busts, just in no way were they successes on a scale of the Raimi
movies, or ones that could justify such enormous Sony spends; Amazing 2 made almost $200m less than Spider-Man 3, and that isn’t even
factoring in inflation). The trailer for Homecoming
is certainly selling this as FUN, in a way that will tap current appetites for
the same (see number three on this list), and its being part of the Marvel
universe, complete with Tony Stark, adds undoubted cachet (I suspect his
involvement is being disproportionately sold in the trailer compared to his screen
time in the actual movie, but that’s entirely understandable). (7 July)
4. Despicable
Me 3
US: $985m, US: $305m
There’s always the danger that spinning off
Despicable Me’s secret weapon, the
Minions, will weaken the performance of the main brand, if one considers they
might be the chief reason nippers were showing up to the adventures of Gru in
the first place. Added to that concern, there’s the Shrek factor: an insufficiently distinct sequel gets a huge lift on
the basis of goodwill towards the original, and the fallout isn’t really
detected until diminishing returns set in for the third instalment. Countering
that is that Illumination Entertainment is on a roll, The Secret Life of Pets powering close to the $900m mark globally,
and that the Ice Age franchise didn’t
take a downturn until this year’s fifth. (30 June)
3. Guardians
of the Galaxy Vol. 2
US: $1.07bn, US: $340m
There’s good reason to expect good grosses
from this Guardians of the Galaxy
sequel. It was a huge hit straight out of the gate ($773m globally), with
numbers only Doctor Strange has come
close to (and that was still shy of Guardians
by $100m) and those above it in the Marvel cinematic universe are either Avengers, Avengers-in-all-but-name (Civil
War) or Iron Man 3 (still the
reigning champ of Marvel movies, quality-wise, and one that had a bounce off
the back of the first Avengers’ success).
There’s no dour, serious-minded posturing or squaring off here, simply the
desire to be irreverent, goofy and have a good time (a similar, although
tonally very different, reason for Deadpool’s
success), and as such it’s quite possible this will shoot past the $1bn mark.
I’m going conservative, but grosses in the Civil
War range are quite possible. There’s an appetite to see more from these
characters, and more from James Gunn’s distinctive, relatively unrestricted
messing about in the Marvel bathtub. (UK: 28 April US: 5 May)
2. Fast
and Furious 8
WW: $1.205m, US: $310m
This will be the tester; to what extent
were the gains made by Furious 7
based on Paul Walker’s death and the mythologizing of their “family” unit? 7 felt like a good place to end the series,
but it’s Vin’s only successful franchise and it made not that far off twice
what its predecessor did globally, a phenomenal result ($1.516bn to $788m), so
there was no way Universal wouldn’t want to see one of its few franchise brands
continue. Whether F Gary Gray was the right guy to do that, I’m not so sure;
he’s fine for the dramatics (Vin’s turned traitor? Or has he? Well, of course
he hasn’t, you can tell by how unconvincing he is snogging Charlize... What’s
that you say?) but not so much for the camaraderie and comedy antics, and the
absence of that lightness of touch (and sense of absurdity) may ultimately be 8’s (formerly Fate of the Furious) undoing. $400m of the gross came from China,
though, more than the US, so betting against this is a mug’s game. But there
has to be a ceiling for any franchise. Doesn’t there? (14 April)
1. Star
Wars Episode VIII
WW: $1.95bn, US: $725m
Strictly by past form of the second parts
of Star Wars trilogies, Episode VIII should take a bit of a
tumble, which can either be seen as down to crushing disappointment with the
first instalment (Attack of the Clones)
or the sheer, unbeatable event status of the original (A New Hope, although The Empire
Strikes Back arrived at a time when sequels tend to be cheap cash-ins
rather than deluxe continuations). The
Force Awakens is unlikely to suffer too much from the former, but I suspect
there’ll be a whiff of the latter in its final tally. Albeit, more on the domestic
front than internationally. As such, a better yardstick might be how Age of Ultron performed in comparison to
The Avengers, dipping 25% at home but
a mere 8% overall. Even with those kind of results, Rian Johnson would be
finishing up all-time fourth globally and third Stateside (unadjusted for
inflation, obviously). Whether the movie drops below that or not, it’s still
going to be simply unbeatable this year. (15 December)
The 2016 Shakeout
Time to chuckle
at how wrong I was, with the occasional gasp at uncanny accuracy (figures as at January 8 2016).
1. Captain
America: Civil War
Actual WW: $1.153bn/
US: $408m
My
Prediction: (2nd) WW: $1.1bn/ US: $375m
I
suggested: Just the fact of Downey Jr and
Spidey should guarantee this a billion-plus.
And it did.
Although, that Civil War didn’t reach
for the skies suggests there may be limits to the no-frills approach most of
Marvel’s chosen directors take. If my top two are pretty much on the ball,
given a minor position shuffle, the real aching chasms come to bear shortly.
2. Finding
Dory
Actual WW:
$1.028bn/ US: $504m
My
Prediction: (1st) WW: $1.2bn/ US: $425m
I suggested:
Pixar revert to slumming it… It is sure
to make profuse amounts of money.
What I
didn’t anticipate was just how much of that profusion would be home-grown.
Nearly half Dory’s take is not what
you’d call something to shout about, given that, if it had been as good a
movie, and as lauded, as the original, it could have expected to become the top
grossing animation ever (non-inflation adjusted, of course).
3.
Zootoopia
Actual WW: $1.024bn/
US: $683m
My
Prediction: (18th) WW: $475m/ US: $175m
I
suggested: Disney has been on a bit of a
roll lately… but how robust is the animation market this year? Can each of the
contenders deliver $500m+ at the box office? The March release date might favour
Zootopia.
It
certainly did. Far exceeding anyone’s wildest dreams, it ended up within a
whisker of the second spot. It ought to be one in the eye for sequel-mania, but
chance would be a fine thing. Particularly since Zootopia 2 is a certainty.
4. The
Jungle Book
Actual WW:
$966.6m/ US: $364m
My
Prediction: (28th) WW: $285m, US: $85m
I
suggested: It’s a toss-up between
Favreau’s The Jungle Book being this
year’s over-produced, likely to plunge down the box office Pan, and Disney reintroducing a classic in the
manner of last year’s live-action Cinderella.
This is
where my inverse expectations begin to take hold; I assumed a near-flop, little
anticipating its 3D-lure in the vein of Avatar.
Of course, some might just suggest it was simply very good, but I can’t say I
agree.
5. Rogue
One: A Star Wars Story
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $914m/ US: $477m
My
Prediction: (11th) WW: $625m, US: $255m
I
suggested: If they build something good, multitudes will doubtless come, but
hopefully there’s more to it than just getting hold of those boring old Death
Star plans.
Er, no. Not
really. That hasn’t stopped it though; Rogue
One’s heading for the $1bn mark fast, and ought to end up in pole position
for the year. The lesson: always bet
on Star Wars.
6. The
Secret Life of Pets
Actual WW:
$876m/ US: $507m
My
Prediction: (7th) WW: $655m/ US: $265m
I
suggested: This Universal entry, concerning the shenanigans pets get up to when
the owners are away, has huge potential if done right.
Ironically,
it wasn’t; many of the sight gags were great, but the lead characters simply
weren’t endearing. However, that didn’t stop it showing that Illumination is
currently unstoppable and Universal is the new animation champ to beat.
7. Batman v
Superman: Dawn of Justice
Actual WW:
$873m/ US: $330m
My
Prediction: (4th) WW: $850m/ US: $295m
I
suggested: If it’s really good, expect BvS to break a billion, otherwise, more of a Man
of Steel response.
Which is
pretty much what happened. WB should be grateful it took as much as it did.
8. Deadpool
Actual WW:
$783m/ US: $363m
My
Prediction: (27th) WW: $290m/ US: $160m
I
suggested: Could be one where the
Internet hype doesn’t garner the gross.
Wrong! But
even if I’d been right, no one would have figured the top end much higher than
$500m. This is the one that most confounded studio expectations in 2016.
9.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $795m/ US: $229m
My
Prediction: (8th) WW: $645m/ US: $255m
I
suggested: Just on the level that these
sorts of things rarely do quite as well, expectations should be tempered.
It hasn’t,
but the enthusiasm was most tempered Stateside (71% of the gross
internationally, the highest ratio in the Top 10). How does this bode for the
sequels? By the sounds of things, swathe oneself in continuity. After all, it’s
working gangbusters for Star Wars.
10. Suicide
Squad
Actual WW:
$745m/ US: $325m
My
Prediction: (13th) WW: $595m/ US: $235m
I
suggested: The question is… the gritty
approach (see also Rogue One), and
whether David Ayer can pull off something really commercial.
Well, who
knows what it looked like before the reshoots. But, like BvS, WB must be plain relieved such a mess became such a success.
How long can their luck hold out, though?
11. Doctor
Strange
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $658m/ US: $230m
My Prediction:
(9th) WW: $635m, US: $215m
I
suggested: Expect cosmic, but not crazy
Ang Lee Hulk cosmic. Which is a pity,
but playing safe will bolster the Marvel brand’s business.
And it
certainly did. A storming debut, only outpaced in the MCU by Guardians of the Galaxy.
12. The
Mermaid
13. X-Men:
Apocalypse
Actual WW:
$544m/ US: $155m
My
Prediction: (14th) WW: $565m/ US: $155m
I
suggested: I’d be unsurprised if this
doesn’t even make this much… Possibly the Spectre to Days’ Skyfall.
Pretty
much, which doesn’t bode well for Logan.
14. Kung Fu
Panda 3
Actual WW:
$521m/ US: 144m
My
Prediction: (16th) WW: $535m/ US: $135m
I
suggested: Kung Fu Panda 2 made $665m
back in 2011, and the original made $632m, but is this really awaited with baited
breath?
Not so much,
evidently. It performed acceptably, but dipped $100m on its predecessor;
DreamWorks cancelled The Croods 2 based
on a better gross than this.
15. Moana
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $450m/ US: $225m
My
Prediction: (21st) WW: $370m, US: $145m
I
suggested: unless it’s been as precision tooled
as Frozen, Moana might get rather lost in the Christmas
melee.
Moana has certainly been performing well, but it
seems more likely to finish in the Big
Hero 6 ballpark than Frozen or Zootopia. Still, even that is a
resounding vote of confidence.
16.
Warcraft
Actual WW:
$434m/ US: $47m
My
Prediction: (37th) WW: $215m/ US: $55m
I suggested: the
trailers for this suggest yet another video game adaptation flop.
And it
would have been, if not for China, which scored $221m of its total. On the one
hand, this has made the kind of money that would grant most franchises a
follow-up. On the other, it cost a lot,
and no one much cared for it, apart from in that one region.
17. Jason
Bourne
Actual WW:
$415m/ US: $162m
My
Prediction: (5th) WW: $775m/ US: $300m
I
suggested: Assuming it is good, the
anticipation nearly a decade on could make this even bigger than most are
expecting.
It wasn’t.
It was merely okay. And the results were merely okay. After all that cajoling
and pleading from Universal, and backpedalling from “Never again” Greengrass
and Damon, they went and made a tepid Bourne
movie.
18. Ice
Age: Collision Course
Actual WW:
$408m/ US: $64m
My
Prediction: (3rd) WW: $865m, US: $145m
I
suggested: internationally this is the
most reliable animation series there is. Don’t bet against it.
All series
reach their tipping point, and Ice Age 5
did so particularly starkly; it grossed less than half the global tally of its
predecessor, suggesting that, unless Fox is going for the truly
barrel-scraping, future escapades for Scrat and co will be confined to the
small screen (ironically, this would be a par for the course return for
DreamWorks of late).
19.
Independence Day: Resurgence
Actual WW:
$390m/ US: $287m
My
Prediction: (10th) WW: $630m/ US: $275m
I
suggested: It will undoubtedly have a
massive first weekend
Not really
that massive, actually. I expected a slump, as with Alice Through the Looking Glass, but I didn’t anticipate how much
of a slump. No new franchise for Fox here.
20. Monster
Hunt
21. Sing
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $357m/ US: $213m
My
Prediction: (29th) WW: $285m, US: $115m
I
suggested: duking it out with Moana
Which
hasn’t done it any harm; it came cheap, and it could well make more than half
as much again before it’s through. This should
have been no surprise; it’s another Illumination title.
22. The
Legend of Tarzan
Actual WW:
$357m/ US: $127m
My
Prediction: (40th) WW: $195m/ US: $65m
I
suggested: It should at least open.
All told, Tarzan did surprisingly okay. Not enough
to justify its stratospheric price tag, but at least to combat the idea that
critics can kill a picture.
23. The
Angry Birds Movie
Actual WW:
$350m/ US: $127m
My
Prediction: WW: (6th) $705m, US: $305m
I suggested:
should at least spell a half a billion,
unless it’s entirely wrong-footed
More that
it came half a decade past the game’s peak than it was entirely wrong-footed.
24. Star
Trek Beyond
Actual WW:
$344m/ US: $159m
My
Prediction: (19th) WW: $425m/ US: $215m
I
suggested: Paramount will be hoping it
isn't the Insurrection of this still
fledgling incarnation of the original crew.
More
another case of failing to anticipate how much of a hit it would take, rather
than it taking a hit, this performance surely throws the announced fourth
picture into doubt.
25. Now You
See Me 2
Actual WW:
$335m/ US: $65m
My
Prediction: (41st) WW: $185m, US: $65m
I
suggested: If there’s any justice, this
will be a Ted 2.
There
wasn’t. US antipathy was spot-on, but it finished just a little below the first
globally.
26. Trolls
Actual WW:
$333m/ US: $151m
My
Prediction: (17th) WW: $505m/ US: $165m
I
suggested: DW will be anticipating an
audience ready and willing, regardless of quality.
Par for
course with DreamWorks recent sub-par performances. They’re no longer really a
contender.
26. The
Conjuring 2
Actual WW:
$320m/ US: $102m
My
Prediction: (33rd) WW: $230m, US: $115m
I
suggested: The first was well-received,
so this could do nicely.
And it did,
with a gross only slightly down on the first instalment.
27. Alice
Through the Looking Glass
Actual WW:
$300m/ US: $222m
My
Prediction: (12th) WW: $620m/ US: $155m
I
suggested: I’m dubious this will do half the business of Burton’s picture, since
no one seems to be much demanding a revisit.
My doubt
was correct, but I don’t think anyone – least of all Disney or they’d have
scuppered the thing – reckoned on the dip it would take. Looking Glass made significantly less than a third of the 2010 original. And it was a better movie (not that
such a thing was difficult).
29. Miss
Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Actual WW:
$285m/ US: $87m
My
Prediction: (31st) WW: $265m, US: $115m
I
suggested: Tim Burton desperately needs a
hit, and family fare (Alice, Charlie)
has done him well historically.
A merely
adequate showing, but probably the best that could have been hoped for.
30. Teenage
Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
Actual:
$246m/ US: $82m
My
Prediction: (23rd) WW: $360m, US: $145m
I
suggested: I’ve got this $100m below the
original, but it could well be one of those mystifying Transformers success stories, and go $500m+
Such are
the unknowables of box office. Paramount expected a big fat monster hit sequel,
but it managed to take $250m less than the first. Next stop, a reboot.
31. Sully
32.
Ghostbusters
Actual WW:
$229m/ US: $128m
My
Prediction: (25th) WW: $335m/ US: $145m
I
suggested: it may perform closer to
previous pictures from Feig, none having grossed more than $300m globally.
It did, and
I overestimated even then.
33. Inferno
Actual WW:
$220m/ US: $34m
My
Prediction: (20th) WW: $420m, US: $125m
I
suggested: Hey, maybe this will be the
first good Robert Langdon movie. No?
No. And,
like Ice Age, audience patience
finally expired. Another that made $250m less than the previous instalment.
34. Central
Intelligence
Actual WW:
$217m/ US: $127m
My
Prediction: (32nd) WW: $255m/ US: $145m
I
suggested: Kevin Hart has yet to
translate internationally, but Dwayne Johnson is making ever more of a mark
It did
okay. No more.
35. Bridget
Jones’ Baby
36. Me
Before You
Actual WW:
$208m/ US: $56m
My
Prediction: (49th) WW: $125m/ US: $60m
I
suggested: Angling for this year’s The
Fault in Our Stars, rather than Paper
Towns.
And on a
budget of $20m, even with a gross $100m less than Fault, it most definitely came up trumps.
37. London
has Fallen
Actual WW:
$206m/ US: $63m
My
Prediction: (38th) WW: $205m, US: $90m
I
suggested: Gerard Butler snaps more necks.
Which was
on the money. It made the first one look classy too, which is saying something.
38. The
Monkey King 2
39. Passengers
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $186m/ US: $81m
My
Prediction (35th) WW: $225m/ US: $85m
I
suggested: Much as I’d like it to be
great, and it might just be, I’m guessing it’s still too damn expensive.
It wasn’t
great, and it was too damn expensive
(it may even struggle to reach my projected final tally).
40. Storks
Actual WW:
$180m/ US: $73m
My
Prediction: (43rd) WW: $175m, US: $65m
I
suggested: Can Warner animation deliver a
big hit, or merely a baby-sized one?
Definitely
baby-sized.
41. The BFG
Actual WW:
$180m/ US: $56m
My Prediction:
(15th) WW: $545m/ US: $175m
I
suggested: Hopefully this will be less Hook and more Tintin
No one was
suggesting The BFG was another Hook, but no one wanted to see it
either. One of the year’s biggest clunkers.
42. Bad
Moms
43. The
Divergent Series: Allegiant
Actual WW:
$179m/ US: $66m
My
Prediction: (34th) WW: $225m/ US: $85m
I
suggested: Has the Divergent series had it?
The answer:
yes.
44. The
Girl on a Train
45. The Huntsman’s
Winter War
Actual WW: $165m/
US: $48m
My
Prediction: (26th) WW: $300m/ US: $125m
I suggested: Is
the original one folks just happened to see but didn't really care that much
for?
It
certainly was, taking in more than $200m less than Snow White and the Huntsman. There’s a lesson here for Paramount,
if they think Hemsworth will get anyone extra coming to see Star Trek 4.0.
46. Jack
Reacher: Never Go Back
Actual WW:
$161m/ US: $59m
My
Prediction: (42nd) WW: $175m, US: $70m
I
suggested: Cruise is really reaching if
he thinks this is going bigger than the tepid response to the last Jack.
And, unlike
the last Jack, it was a bit rubbish.
47. Magnificent
Seven
48. Ip Man
3
49. Arrival
50. Don’t
Breathe
51. Gods of
Egypt
Actual WW:
$151m/ US: $31m
My Prediction:
(46th) WW: $145m/ US: $35m
I
suggested: this looks like an onslaught
of bad CGI gubbins.
Good fun,
though. No one was interested, regardless.
52. The
Accountant
53. Lights
Out
54. Pete’s
Dragon
Actual WW:
$143m/ US: $76m
My Prediction:
(22nd) WW: $365m, US: $165m
I
suggested: This looks like a year for big
creatures befriending wee bairns
… which
families are entirely indifferent to.
55. Sausage
Party
56. Hacksaw
Ridge
57. Detective
Chinatown
58. Mechanic:
Resurrection
59. Ride
Along 2
Actual WW:
$124m/ US: $73m
My
Prediction: (47th) WW: 140m/ US: $110m
I
suggested: Likely a similar US response
to the original Kevin Hart/Ice Cube starrer
Pretty
much.
60. The
Shallows
61. Deepwater
Horizon
62. The
Purge: Election Year
63. How to
Be Single
64. Office
Christmas Party
65. The 5th
Wave
66. 10
Cloverfield Lane
67.
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
Actual WW:
$108m/ US: $55m
My
Prediction: (45th) WW: $165m, US: $80m
I
suggested: More coarse hijinks, but to diminishing
returns?
Indeed.
68.
Assassin’s Creed
Actual (TO
DATE) WW: $100m/ US: $50m
My
Prediction: (44th) WW: $175m, US: $65m
I
suggested: Michael Fassbender attempts to
break the curse of video game adaptations.
Keep on
trying.
69. The
Little Prince
70. Dirty Grandpa
71. Ben-Hur
Actual WW:
$94m/ US: $36m
My
Prediction: (36th) WW: $220m, US: $65m
I
suggested: unless Timur Bekmambetov is
wooing the Christian ticket, this will go the way of Exodus.
It was even
worse than that. Such a forgettably big stinker, hardly anyone even cares that
it was a stinker.
89. Hail,
Caesar!
Actual WW:
$63m/ US: $30m
My
Prediction: (48th) WW: $125m, US: $45m
I
suggested: probably finishing up in The
Royal Tennenbaums ballpark for eccentric
period comedies.
Not a
chance, as it was simply too wilfully
idiosyncratic.
135. Nine
Lives
Actual WW:
$20m/ US: $20m
My
Prediction: (50th) WW: $120m, US: $60m
I
suggested: Kevin Spacey stuck in a cat,
kind of.
The ignominy!
The performance of his career, and Spacey’s latest couldn’t catch a break.
Agree? Disagree? Mildly or vehemently? Let me know in the comments below.
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