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Prediction
2019 Box Office

2019 is even more loaded in Disney’s favour than most years (which is every year anyway); they’ve got an easy shot at five $1bn+ grossers, leaving other studios to mop up whatever table leavings they can. Notables that didn’t make the cut: Minecraft, Greyhound, Midway, Zombieland 2, Sonic the Hedgehog, Little Women, Child’s Play reboot, Charlie’s Angels. Beneath this little lot you can find my error sheet for 2018.

50-41

50. Boss Level
WW: $150m/ US: $70m

This is basically Source Code/Groundhog Day/Happy Death Day but with Joe Carnahan’s sparky direction and Frank Grillo subjected to an unending time loop courtesy of (most probably) Mel Gibson’s nefarious colonel. Grillo isn’t a big name, The Purge aside, but there’s an inherent appeal to this type of movie done right, so its prospects oughtn’t to be underestimated. (16 Aug)

49. Knives Out
WW: $155m/ US: $75m

There may well be a multitude of angry Star Wars fans who will refuse to give Rian Johnson a cent following The Last Jedi, but that probably won’t matter if this mystery crime thriller is up to snuff. Looper was a hit, after all, and the writer-director has Daniel Craig and Chris Evans headlining. (29 Nov)

48. Hellboy 
WW: $165m/ US: $60m

The mixed responses to the news that Guillermo del Toro would not be completing his Hellboy trilogy were tempered somewhat by the promise that this would be a more “authentic” version. And then the trailer dropped and the conversation was suddenly all about how it seemed just like del Toro’s version but cheap too. These movies were never that big first time round, and it’s looking doubtful that will change very much. (US: 12 Apr)

47. A Dog’s Journey
WW: $165m/ US: $55m

A Dog’s Purpose filled viewers with canine joy to the tune of $204m globally in 2017. This one may well follow suit. (US: 17 May)

46. Cats
WW: $170m/ US: $85m

It still isn’t entirely clear how director Tom Hooper – who bewildered many with his visual lack of approach to Les Misérables – is planning on tackling this adaptation of the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical (live action, animation, a combination of the two), and while I wouldn’t rule out the director’s knack for landing on his feet, neither would I be overly confident that this will end up being a big hit on the big screen, unless the choices he makes in terms of medium are somehow the right ones. (US: 20 Dec)

45. Artemis Fowl
WW: $170m/ US: $70m

There’s no clear telling which children’s or Young Adult property will become a hit based purely on quality (step forward Twilight), but Artemis Fowl doesn’t look promising. Kenneth Branagh isn’t exactly known for his deft touch as a director, and judging by the trailer, the material seems to foreground an annoying brat doing a Men in Black impression. Prospects marked as iffy. (9 Aug)

44. Last Christmas
WW: $170m/ $65m

Christmas romcoms don’t necessarily find longevity until after the event (see Love Actually), but this Paul Feig directed, Emma Thompson co-scripted and co-starring entry is going to try its hardest to counter that. Emilia Clarke previously featured in the genre’s sleeper hit Me Before You, while both Henry Golding and Michelle Yeoh were in last year’s also sleeper hit Crazy Rich Asians. It’s UK set, so expect Hollywood-style festive trimmings. (15 Nov)

43. Dora the Explorer
WW: $175m/ US: $85m

James Bobbin (Muppets, Most Wanted) brings a live action Dora the Explorer to the screen. It’s difficult to gauge the potential of such small screen brands. Best case scenario is that of another Nickelodeon stablemate, the part live-action The Spongebob Movie: Sponge out of Water that made $323m in 2015 (previously tried and tested in 2004). On the other hand, Nickelodeon Movies has been involved in many a negligible stab in the dark (Monster Trucks), and aging up Dora by ten years seems cynical in a whole number of ways. (2 Aug)

42. Happy Death Day 2U
WW: $180m/ US: $80m

The first went down a storm, most unusually for a horror with critics too, so this sequel really ought to capitalise on that goodwill, unless it’s doing something very wrong. (US: 15 Feb)

41. The Woman in the Window
WW: $195m/ US: $85m

Genre magpie Joe Wright follows the Oscar success of Darkest Hour with a thriller based on AJ Finn’s novel in the Rear Window style, as Amy Adams’ agoraphobic child psychologist (yeah, I know) sees a crime while spying on her neighbours. This sort of thing can do very well, even when it isn’t very good (The Girl on the Train). (4 Oct)

40-31

40. Abominable
WW: $205m/ US: $70m

There appears to be a minor vogue for yeti-esque animated movies at the moment, what with Smallfoot in 2018 ($214m gross) and Laika’s Missing Link also due this. As such, this DreamWorks feature may have had its thunder stolen. (27 Sep)

39. Us
WW: $210m/ $125m

Practically impossible to know how this will go, even with a trailer that gives away its spooky twist. Even if you see Jordan Peele as the new Shyamalan (unexpected genre-undercutting fare), it’s worth remembering that the latter’s follow up to a massive hit was a relative wobble. Us is sure to open based on Get Out, but the overt horror element may put off those who favoured the more psychological/sociological games of his debut. (15 Mar)

38. John Wick: Chapter 3
WW: $215m/ US: $110m

John Wick: Chapter Two more than doubled the gross of the first, so there’s an understandable air of confidence regarding this medium-budgeted trilogy capper. I wouldn’t expect another massive rise in grosses on its predecessor, but enough to firmly cement this series’ popularity and guarantee whatever subsequent Wick-universe offerings may get mooted. (17 May)

37. Angel Has Fallen
WW: $215m/ US: $65m

Gerard Butler’s neck-snapping, President-saving series is entirely critic-proof, which is just as well given how ridiculous the movies are (I quite liked the first, but didn’t care for the second). Butler’s Mike Banning is framed for attempting to assassinate the President this time round (because that makes sense) and has to clear his name andsave Morgan Freeman (again). (23 Aug)

36. Rocketman
WW: $220m/ US: $105m

Is Elton Freddie, in terms of iconic status? No, but I’ll wager this is the better, crazier, more creative biopic. Will Elton throw a tantrum if it isn’t a hit? Probably a tiara too. (24 May)

35. Chaos Walking
WW: $270m/ US: $120m

Doug Liman doing science fiction, so closer to Jumper or Edge of Tomorrow? Never say never to YA, at least if you’re Lionsgate, desperate for a hit franchise. Still, they must be crossing their fingers right now, in the wake of Mortal Engines. Tom Holland and Daisy Ridley headlining may help. Or maybe not. I’m guessing Charlie Kaufman likes the source material or needs a cheque, since he’s one of the credited writers. (1 Mar)

34. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
WW: $270m/ US: $125m

Franchise fatigue set in very quickly with the big screen LEGO cinematic universe, despite their Batman (for my money) being funnier than The LEGO Movie. That made $469m, Batman $311m, so I’d expect this to do decently, but gradually going south, unless the franchise cornerstone has a secret lure. (Feb 8)

33. Alita: Battle Angel
WW: $280m/ US: $90m

I had this for 320/120 when it was still pencilled in for 2018, and the more exposure it has, the less sure of its potential I become. It could be a Mortal Engines and find no audience at all. In its favour, star Rosa Salazar’s augmented eyes are at least a talking point. Against it is that Robert Rodriguez has failed to make the CGI sufficiently photoreal (surely Cameron should be breathing down his neck?) and has cast an utterly antiseptic male lead. (14 Feb)

32. Downtown Abbey
WW: $285m/ US: $80m

To be honest, this is more of a stab in the dark than most of my stabs in the dark. Downtown Abbey reportedly had a 120m global audience, so how many of those will translate into cinemagoers? (Sep 20)

31. The Angry Birds Movie 2
WW: $295m/ US: $105m

The first did surprisingly well on a medium budget, for a passé brand ($352m), so it makes sense to milk this for all it’s worth. The question is how significant the diminishing returns will be (see LEGO above). (US: 16 Aug)


30-21

30. Ad Astra
WW: $310m/ US: $110m

James Gray’s directorial career isn’t exactly strewn with hits, although his most recent, The Lost City of Z, was probably his best picture so far, and you don’t necessarily need a track record with Brad Pitt attached. Still, this sounds like adult sci-fi (Pitt goes searching for his lost father Tommy Lee Jones, who took a trip to Neptune looking for E.T.s) and unless you’re Christopher Nolan, there are no guarantees there. (US: 24 May)

29. Spies in Disguise
WW: $315m/ US: $115m

Ideally, Fox/Blue Sky will be hoping this does for the animated spy movies what The Incredibles did for animated superhero ones. But Blue Sky isn’t Pixar, and their non-Ice Age pictures have been variably received. Will Smith offering vocal assistance may help. (US: 13 Sep)

28. The Addams Family
WW: $315m/ US: $120m

Another with a question mark, this time MGM furnishing an animated version of Charles Addams’ famous family. Co-directed by Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan, whose Sausage Party was a surprise hit in 2016. (US: Oct 18)

27. Pet Sematary
WW: $325m/ US: $145m

Everyone wants the next It, but perhaps there’s only one It (but in two chapters). (US: Apr 5)

26. Annabelle 3
WW: $335m/ US: $95m

So far, The Conjuring universe hasn’t misfired at the box office. Indeed, if The Nun wasn’t terribly well received, the second Annabelle (prequel) was generally praised, so the third should have a chance of approaching that film’s $307m gross. The question mark may be series writer Gary Dauberman turning director, but it seemed to go okay for Leigh Whannell with Insidious: Chapter 3. (3 Jul)

25. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
WW: $375m/ US: $155m 

Until The Hateful Eight, it seemed that, whatever Tarantino decided to do, audiences would be along for the ride (unless it was Grindhouse). Now… well, casting Pitt and DiCaprio looks like determined insulation against being spurned again, even with the dubious decision to feature the Manson Murders as part of his latest sprawling narrative. For a while there, that looked as questionable as the aforementioned Grindhouse debacle. Now, I wouldn’t put it past him converting such queasiness into some degree of Oscar glory, even with the spectre of Weinstein haunting him. (US: 9 Aug/ UK: 26 Jul)

24. The New Mutants
WW: $405m/ US: $105m

The fate of Fox’s X-Men pictures is bound up in the forthcoming Disney deal, and whether or not their releases get due weight behind them or they’re “allowed” to quietly fizzle for not being part of the new agenda. The New Mutants was subjected to significant reshoots to beef up the horror, and thus moved from a 2018 release date, so it has already had problems getting out there. (2 Aug)

23. Glass
WW: $450m/ US: $210m

This could potentially go higher or dip lower, depending on how anticipated an event a new Shyamalan has become (again) since it was revealed that Split was set in the same universe as Unbreakable, and so a trilogy capper was due. One thing is certain; it will open. (18 Jan)

23. Men in Black: International
WW: $450m/ US: $145m

Sony have been desperate to reboot this for a while, wanting as they are for viable franchises, such that at one point, MIB International was going to be a 21 Jump Street mash-up. Instead, they’ve struggled to find a couple of leads, settling on a strange no-man’s land in contrast to the original trilogy’s cartoonish energy and performances. Still, stylistically bereft is a good fit for helmer F Gary Gray. (14 Jun)

22. Dark Phoenix
WW: $500m/US: $150m

More X-Men from Fox, this time part of their core ongoing storyline (so featuring McAvoy, Fassbender, Lawrence et al). They’ve decided on a course Paramount ultimately blanched at with Star Trek Beyond, letting loose a franchise writer as a first-time director. On top of that, Sophie Turner’s required to carry Dark Phoenix, and it’s sequelising a movie that was considered a disappointment. It may be that no one at Fox has to worry anymore come June, though… (7 Jun)

21. Joker
WW: $560m/ US: $205m

DC has managed to pull it around, despite all prognostications to the contrary. From being the comic book kingdom to bet against, they’re now approaching the status of a dead cert off the back of Aquaman and Wonder Woman. Shazam! has also mustered interest. And anything involving the Joker is an easy sell, even a little movie like this with a meagre $55m budget. Which isn’t to say Joker couldn’t break out even bigger, only that it hasn’t been designed with that in mind. (4 Oct)

20-11

20. The Mermaid 2
WW: $570m/ US: $5m

I’ve only got one Chinese-language film on this list, but you can probably multiply that by at least three. 2018 saw Operation Red Sea ($579m) and Detective Chinatown 2 ($544m) in the global Top 20, and Monster Hunt 2 ($362m) in the Top 30. Stephen Chow’s first The Mermaid made $554m in 2016, and the only thing holding this sequel back has been pushing the release date from early in the year in order to spend more time on the effects.

19. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
WW: $575m/ US: $165m

Legendary’s massive monster franchise doesn’t come cheap, which means there’s probably a fine line in terms of their going into the black. They’re viable, but they don’t do the next-level numbers of the likes of other comic book, SF or fantasy franchises. Deadline Hollywood only did a Top 10 most profitable movies last year, so we didn’t get to hear how Kong: Skull Island fared, but in 2014 they had Godzilla clearing a $52m profit (less than Divergent and franchise-staller Amazing Spider-Man 2). Obviously, something adds up, but without characters anyone cares about – someone’s about to mention Bay Transformers to prove me wrong – it seems unlikely any of these are going to grow, even with the promised ultimate standoff of Godzilla vs Kong (2020). (24 May)

18. Terminator 6
WW: $600m/ US: $170m

The prospect of a decent Terminator sequel has become a case of the boy who cried wolf; we’ve been burned so many times, we’ll believe it when we see it. And yet, despite lousy reviews, the last entry still made $440m WW (it also cost a lot, which largely cancelled that out). Now, though, with Cameron back in charge of his baby, no one’s betting against this being worthwhile, only whether Tim Miller can deliver an authentic Terminator 3.1. (1 Nov)

17. Gemini Man
WW: $615m/ US: $175m

Big Willie’s solo cachet these days is a source of some debate. It’s not as if his star ever really waned, just that he made questionable choices and/or disappeared from the spotlight. And then, when he returned, he headed an ensemble (Suicide Squad) and a Netflix movie (Bright), neither of which really tells us if he can get bums on seats. Aladdin is a supporting turn in another franchise so doesn’t really send signals either (although, if his impact is as indelible as Robin Williams’ was in the original, there won’t be much doubt). So it’s down to this to tell whether double the Will Smith can bring in the punters; here, with his younger clone out to kill his older (but not really that old) self in a long in development hell vehicle finally seeing the light of day. Ang Lee is calling the shots, so from that standpoint there should be nothing to complain about. (4 Oct)

16. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
WW: $645m/ US: $150m

There’s a danger that, if you aren’t completely sure of a built-in audience, you can leave it too long for a sequel. DreamWorks did that very thing with Kung Fu Panda 3 a couple of years ago, which managed to make less than both its predecessors after a half decade gap. There’s the same distance here, and while Dragon 2 was generally – rightly – regarded as a high-water mark for sequel fare, that doesn’t mean it will return to Pixar multiples. (22 Feb)

15. Shazam!
WW: $650m/ US: $245m

The Jumanji effect? Also known as Big-appeal. Get a kid in the body of an adult, or an adult playing a big kid, depending on how you want to look at it, and you have to do something pretty drastically wrong not to score. Jumanji 2 made nearly a billion, and I suspect the studio would have been happy with half that. Shazam!’s trailers landed to instant applause – and not a little surprise at how much fun it seemed to be. Zachary Levi’s muscle suit has garnered some less than flattering comments, but what really matters is whether he can bring the funny, which at this point seems pretty much guaranteed. DC’s chances may not all pay off, but at least they seem to have found a groove, finally, of stretching themselves and experimenting. Marvel currently appears ultra-conservative and safe in comparison. (5 Apr)

14. Detective Pikachu
WW: $675m/ US: $235m

I don’t think this was seriously on anyone’s radar before the trailer dropped. Indeed, it might have gone the way of Sonic the Hedgehog, whose teaser poster could have killed the movie even before we’ve glimpsed him in action. But getting Ryan Reynolds to voice the furry Pokemon-thing is a stroke of genius, except to anyone who has realised the key to a Reynolds hit movie is not seeing his face. Sure, all the good bits might be in the trailer, but with his penchant for ad-libbing, that’s unlikely. The only doubt with Detective Pikachu is how high it can go. (10 May)

13. Aladdin
WW: $730m/ US: $215m

I think it’s unwise to assume the success of a property based purely on a teaser – a lot can happen in six months. But it’s undeniable that no one was itching for Aladdin the way they were for The Lion King after their respective trailers dropped. There’s also the question of how much appetite there is for Disney live-action remakes in a year also featuring the aforementioned and Dumbo. Quite aside from the greed – even by Mouse House standards – there’s the sense that something has to give. Still, they surely wouldn’t employ director Guy Ritchie if they wanted pervading staidness rather than infectious bravado. Or Will Smith if they weren’t going to have their genie riffing like a comedic so and so. (24 May)

12. Captain Marvel
WW: $735m/ US: $210m

It would be tempting to think the sky’s the limit for this first (solo) lead female Marvel superhero movie, after last year’s Black Panther and Infinity War, and various sources will cite it as punters’ most anticipated movie of 2019. But then there’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, which just did nicely, thank you, showing little susceptibility to basking in Infinity War’s glory. And also some saying, from the trailers, that it all looks a little familiar (I thought it looked conceptually quite fresh, but there you go). I was cautious about Black Panther’s prospects last year, meaning I guessed its gross at about half what it turned out to be, but I do suspect this isn’t Marvel’s equivalent of Wonder Woman, and it may be more in line with other untested heroes’ debuts. (8 Mar)

11. Hobbs and Shaw
WW: $740m/ US: $215m

What’s the baseline for a Fast & Furious movie, let alone a spin-off? F7 was arguably artificially inflated due to the death of Paul Walker, but F8 arguably did less well than it might have thanks to the charmless direction of F Gary Gray. And Hobbs stole all the best bits of that movie. And both the Stath and the Rock are big in China. But how big? And then there’s David Leitch, fresh from a big hit with Deadpool 2, pouring a liberal helping of first-class action choreography on top. Even if this isn’t the most successful F&F universe movie, it has a chance of being the most fun. (2 Aug)

10-1

10. It: Chapter Two
WW: $750m/ US: $300m

No one anticipated the phenomenon of It (Chapter One), to the tune of $700m globally. That’s crazy money for the horror genre, successful as it can undoubtedly be; a big hit is generally looking at half that amount. The question is whether adult versions of the kids from the first go-round will have the same pulling power. Possibly not enough to become significantly bigger, but I think most execs would be perfectly happy with more of the same. (6 Sep)

9. The Secret Life of Pets 2
WW: $805m/ US: $255m

Illumination seem like they can do no wrong… Except that they couldn’t turn The Grinch into a hit on the same level as their Despicable Mes or the first instalment of this 2016 hit ($875m global). Does this fledgling franchise have the same repeat appeal as the Minions? Particularly when it has to do most of its business a couple of weeks before Toy Story 4 opens? It will probably do just fine but also not break any new ground. (7 Jun)

8. Dumbo
WW: $855m/ US: $275m

What should we be expecting of Disney live-action reimaginings? Beauty and the Beast or The Jungle Book every time is surely unfeasible, but everything about Dumbo so far says must-see tearjerker (while we’ve only had a teaser for Aladdin, it relatively seems to have its work cut out). This comes out ahead of Aladdin and The Lion King (seriously, is Disney trying to get them all out before the world ends on Memorial Day? Wait, they’ve got Frozen 2 too? Maybe it's farewell come February 2020, then). (29 Mar)

7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
$915m/ US: $295m

Spider-Man seems to be the superhero who doesn’t get passé. Like Batman, provided there’s enough there to keep the audience interested (Batfleck didn’t quite cut the mustard). Homecoming confirmed that Marvel’s take on Sony’s character was flying strong, even if the animated Spider-Verse went down better with critics. Far From Home, coming off the back of Endgame’s resurrection of Peter, ought to simply underline the point, but it could conceivably get a boost the way Iron Man Three is said to have done from Avengers. (5 Jul)

6. Jumanji 3
$1005m/ $330m

No one wasted any time getting this sequel off the starting blocks, did they? Albeit, it hasn’t even begun filming yet. All the main cast are set to return, along with the director and writers. Will they do anything different with it, or will it be the body swap equivalent of Home Alone 2: Lost in New York? (13 Dec)

5. Frozen 2
WW: $1100m/ US: $345m

Can frozen lightning strike twice? The key isn’t whether or not it can entertain, but whether it can come up with a story as compelling. I doubt Disney will deliver a Shrek 2, but I’m also doubtful Frozen 2 can quite muster the magic of the first. (22 Nov)

4. Toy Story 4
WW: $1200m/ US: $450m

Is this a sign of the future of cinema? Disney, with only itself to compete with? Quite probably. I was more than happy with one Toy Story, let alone four of the bloody things, but that’s probably because I never loved it the way everyone else seems to. Toy Story 3 previously ended things for good, so perhaps this starts another trilogy. They should probably bank voices for the cast in advance, if that’s the case. Certainly if the gaps between instalments thus far are indicative. (21 Jun)

3. The Lion King
WW: $1250m/ US: $445m

There’s definitely interest in the xerox copy side of live-action Disney remakes, as Beauty and the Beast proved, even if that means the results are as artistically bereft as Gus van Sant’s shot-for-shot Psycho. This may well include additional material from the stage musical, but Jon Favreau most definitely isn’t going to rock any boats in giving an audience the warm fuzzy nostalgic feeling they expect. And the tunes. (19 Jul)

2. Star Wars Episode IX
WW: $1750m/ US: $700m

How much of Rian Johnson’s lost ground can JJ Abrams make up? Does anyone care? I don’t doubt he knows he needs to bring back the vociferous but wounded devotees, but also that he can’t recharge the franchise to Force Awakens levels. And yet, those who said never again will surely relent if someone they know they’re okay with is tempting them with exactly the kind of fan bait they dig the most. (20 Dec)

1. Avengers: Endgame
WW: $1205m/ US: $700m

What’s there to say? How can this possibly fail, short of Rian Johnson being asked to take charge of some last minute reshoots? It means the main Star Wars entry won’t be the biggest film of its year for the first time since Lucas’ latter two prequels, but I’m sure Disney won’t be too annoyed at beating itself. (26 Apr)

The 2018 Shakeout
How I Fared:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
Actual: WW: $2.049bn/ US: $679m
My Prediction: (1st) WW: $1.235bn/ US: $445m

I suggested: Likely the biggest hit of the year, but not as big a hit as it would have been a couple of years earlier

I wondered if peak Marvel had been reached, but Infinity War resoundingly proved not a bit of it. So while I had it right as the year’s No.1 (not a stretch) I underestimated its gross by a good $800m.

2. Black Panther
Actual: WW: $1.347bn/ US: $700m
My Prediction: (9th) WW: $675m/ US: $235m

I suggested: As a franchise introduction, I’m thinking Doctor Strange figures

In isolation that wasn’t so wrong-headed, but I don’t think anyone anticipated quiet what a cultural moment Black Panther turned out to be; it was Wonder Woman-doubled, impact-wise. At least I had it in the Top Ten.

3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Actual: WW: $1.305bn/ US: $417m
My Prediction: (3rd) WW: $1.015bn/ US: $325m

I suggested: even if this one loses a third of its audience, it’s still set to gross a billion globally. 

As it happened, Fallen Kingdom didn’t suffer a significant slump, despite being frequently derided by critics and the online community. One might suggest this series is currently quality-proof, which will be good news for Colin Trevorrow’s trilogy capper.

4. Incredibles 2
Actual: WW: $1.264m/ US: $504m
My Prediction: (6th) WW: $865m/ US: $315m

I suggested: while I’d expect it to score, Incredibles 2 might not astound anyone. 

And score it did; so as long as it’s not a Cars, Pixar sequels can currently be expected to go $1bn and then some.

5. Venom
Actual: WW: $855m/ US: $213m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (15th) WW: $560m/ US: $175m

I suggested: If this stands out, in a good way, you could well add another $100m to its tally.

Unlike many who foretold a bomb, I was quite positive about Venom’s prospects, and until it was released in China, not very far off base, but $272m there made it a phenomenon.

6. Aquaman
Actual: WW: $839m/ US: $215m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (14th) WW: $565m/ US: $160m

I suggested: if it’s simply really good, it could, similarly to Venom, make another $100m on top of this estimate. 

Another that has gone stratospheric, despite general doubt over its potential. Of course, its US performance isn’t, relatively, all that.

7. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Actual: WW: $791m/ US: $220m
My Prediction: (11th) WW: $630m/ US: $200m

I suggested: It all depends if Christopher McQuarrie can deliver the goods, the first time a director has returned to this franchise.

He did.

8. Deadpool 2
Actual: WW: $737m/ US: $319m
My Prediction: (5th) WW: $885m/ US: $365m

I suggested: I wasn’t really sold on the first, so I could well be underestimating its potential.

I actually overestimated it. DP2 did fine (and I much preferred it to the first) but that initial freshness wasn’t quite the same lure second time out.

9. Bohemian Rhapsody
Actual: WW: $714m/ US: $191m  (STILL IN RELEASE) 
My Prediction: Didn’t place.

I suggested: needs to see off the bad smell of Bryan Singer and be decent, while being Queen-approved and neutered. 

A fine lead performance and a crowd-pleasing touch ensured the fast-and-loose approach to the band’s history was a bonus, not a failing. Financially anyway.

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Actual: WW: $629m/ US: $157m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (7th) WW: $720m/ US: $200m

I suggested: I hope Crimes surprises, as I rather liked the first one, but I’m expecting a Hobbit-type drop in the gross.

An even more precipitous drop than I figured, which given the cost of these things could well call for an urgent rethink.

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Actual: WW: $623m/ US: $217m
My Prediction: (12th) WW: $615m/ US: $205m

12. Ready Player One
Actual: WW: $583m/ US: $138m
My Prediction: (20th) WW: $415m/ US: $165m

13. Operation Red Sea
Actual: WW: $579m/ US: $2m
My Prediction: (38th) WW: $200m/ US: $1m

14. Detective Chinatown 2
Actual: WW: $544m/ US: $1m
My Prediction: (45th) WW: $160m/ US: $1m

15. The Meg
Actual: WW: $530m/ US: $145m
My Prediction: (23rd) WW: $395m/ US: $85m

16. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Actual: WW: $527m/ US: $168m
My Prediction: (24th) WW: $380m/ US: $145m

17. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch 
Actual: WW: $475m/ US: $267m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (4th) WW: $900m/ US: $300m

Even Illumination's Midas touch had to end eventually. Either it's failure to best the risible Ron Howard/Jim Carrey version suggests audiences preferred that one (impossible) or they felt there just wasn't an urgent need for another right now.

18. Rampage
Actual: WW: $428m/ US: $101m
My Prediction: (19th) WW: $435m/ US: $140m

19. Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again!
Actual: WW: $394m/ US: $121m
My Prediction: (13th) WW: $575m/ US: $155m

20. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Actual: WW: $393m/ US: $214m
My Prediction: (2nd) WW: $1.075bn/ US: $475m

And lo, the kingdom crumbled.

21. A Star is Born
Actual: WW: $389m/ US: $201m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (17th) WW: $475m/ US: $205m

22. Fifty Shades Freed
Actual: WW: $371m/ US: $100m
My Prediction: (27th) WW: $305m/ US: $90m

23. The Nun
Actual: WW: $366m/ US: $118m
My Prediction: (30th) WW: $260m/ US: $90m

24. Monster Hunt 2
Actual: WW: $362m/ US: $1m
My Prediction: (16th) WW: $510m/ US: $5m

25. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2
Actual: WW: $354m/ US: $180m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (10th) WW: $640m/ US: $210m

Peter Rabbit

A sure sign the apocalypse is coming.

A Quiet Place

28. Skyscraper
Actual: WW: $304m/ US: $68m
My Prediction: (28th) WW: $410m/ US: $95m

29. Ocean’s 8
Actual: WW: $298m/ US: $140m
My Prediction: (36th) WW: $235m/ US: $105m

30. Pacific Rim Uprising
Actual: WW: $291m/ US: $60m
My Prediction: (27th) WW: $305m/ US: $55m

31. Maze Runner: The Death Cure
Actual: WW: $288m/ US: $58m
My Prediction: (33rd) WW: $245m/ US: $85m

32. Tomb Raider
Actual: WW: $275m/ US: $58m
My Prediction: (33rd) WW: $245m/ US: $75m

33. Halloween
Actual: WW: $254m/ US: $159m
My Prediction: (55th) WW: $120m/ US: $80m

Crazy Rich Asians

Paddington 2

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (STILL IN RELEASE)

Smallfoot

38. Mary Poppins Returns
Actual: WW: $200m/ US: $115m (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (8th) WW: $705m/ US: $255m

A whacking great over-estimation, however well this one does over the next couple of months. And I don't think it has Greatest Showman buzz; it doesn't have the tunes for a start.

Christopher Robin

40. The Equalizer 2
Actual: WW: $190m/ US: $102m
My Prediction: (42nd) WW: $175m/ US: $75m

41. Bumblebee
Actual: WW: $187m/ US: $79m  (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (22nd) WW: $400m/ US: $115m

42. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Actual: WW: $170m/ US: $55m
My Prediction: (18th) WW: $450m/ US: $165m

Proof if it's needed that extensive reshoots rarely salvage a lost cause.

43. Insidious: The Last Key
Actual: WW: $168m/ US: $68m
My Prediction: (60th) WW: $105m/ US: $45m

44. The Predator
Actual: WW: $161m/ US: $51m
My Prediction: (31st) WW: $260m/ US: $105m

45. Johnny English Strikes Again
Actual: WW: $158/ US: $4m
My Prediction: (41st) WW: $180m/ US: $20m

46. Red Sparrow
Actual: WW: $152m/ US: $47m
My Prediction: (35th) WW: $240m/ US: $125m

47. Creed II
Actual: WW: $141m/ US: $112m  (STILL IN RELEASE)
My Prediction: (46th) WW: $155m/ US: $95m

48. The First Purge
Actual: WW: $136m/ US: $69m
My Prediction: (58th) WW: $110m/ US: $65m

49. A Wrinkle in Time
Actual: WW: $133m/ US: $101m
My Prediction: (44th) WW: $165m/ US: $85m

The House With a Clock in its Walls

Agree? Disagree? Mildly or vehemently? Let me know in the comments below.

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